Eastern Africa defies global trade headwinds with resilient export growth

Kigali, 29 September 2025 (ECA) - Eastern African exports are demonstrating remarkable resilience amid global trade turbulence, defying expectations of decline following sweeping US tariffs and persistent geopolitical uncertainty. Recent data from the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA) reveals that several countries in the region have not just weathered the storm but have significantly expanded their exports.

Surging exports to the United States

Despite the introduction of broad US tariffs in April 2025 - part of the "Liberation Day" package imposing up to 30 percent duties on major Asian exporters - countries in Eastern Africa have seen a surprising uptick in exports to the US. The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) led the charge with its exports to the United States increasing by more than a billion between April and July 2025 compared to the same period in 2024. Ethiopia and Kenya also posted large increases in exports to the US, with a rise of 95 percent and 22 percent, respectively. These gains are largely attributable to trade diversion effects, combined with strong demand in the US for Eastern African commodities - although the region was also hit by tariffs, the tariffs imposed on other leading exporters to the US market were much higher - 30% in the case of China, vis-à-vis just 10% for the Ethiopia and Kenya, for instance. Meanwhile, Chinese exports to the United States are down 35.6% in the year to July 2025, compared with the previous year.

Intra-African trade gains momentum

Regional trade is also on the rise. In 2024, total trade within the East African Community (EAC) surpassed for the first time $11 billion, marking a 22 percent increase from 2023. Intra-African trade grew by 8.5 percent, far outpacing the 0.4 percent growth in exports to markets outside the continent. Agricultural produce and manufactured goods such as textiles, chemicals, cement, and pharmaceuticals, are driving this growth, high- lighting the potential of regional value chains and the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).

Commodity boom fuels export growth

The region's export performance has been buoyed by increases in key global commodity prices. Gold prices rose by over 60 percent between January 2024 and July 2025, while coffee prices nearly doubled. Tanzania and Uganda, both major gold producers, capitalised on this trend, with Uganda also benefiting from strong exports of coffee, tea, fish, and flowers. Kenya's tea exports hit a record $1.7 billion in 2024, up from $1.4 billion the previous year.

Structural challenges persist

Despite these successes, the region faces significant structural vulnerabilities. Mineral exports now dominate the trade landscape, with minerals now accounting for 53% of all Eastern African exports. Meanwhile, the share of manufacturing in exports has declined steadily, falling to just 17.5 percent in 2024.

Policy responses and infrastructure investments

Governments across Eastern Africa are responding with strategic initiatives to bolster trade. In September, Kenya launched Phase II of the Dongo Kundu Special Economic Zone, while Tanzania has recently completed the expansion of Tanga Port and initiated agricultural export corridors. In September, Uganda a bilateral agreement with Kenya to eliminate non-tariff barriers. On its part, Rwanda is developing Rusizi Port to enhance regional logistics, and Ethiopia is upgrading the Moyale One-Stop Border Post and expanding industrial parks.

Looking ahead

As the future of African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) remains uncertain, Eastern Africa must prepare for a post-AGOA landscape by diversifying export markets and strengthening intra-African trade. The region's recent performance offers a blueprint for resilience, but long-term competitiveness will depend on reducing reliance on commodities, revitalising manufacturing, and deepening regional integration.

The subregional office for East Africa of UNECA serves 14 countries: Burundi, Comores, RD Congo, Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Madagascar, Rwanda, Seychelles, Somalia, South Sudan, Tanzania and Uganda.

For any further information:

ECA: Mr. Didier Habimana; email: [email protected];

Tel. 250-788319899

Issued by:Communications SectionEconomic Commission for AfricaPO Box 3001Addis AbabaEthiopiaTel: +251 11 551 5826E-mail: [email protected]