Taking stock (and flow) of unemployment rates

The unemployment rate across the European Union has fallen to historic lows. After years of persistent decline, the average unemployment rate is now around 6%, down from nearly 12% at its peak in 2013. Looking ahead, the Spring 2026 Economic Forecast expects that the unemployment rate will remain at 6% in 2026 and 2027. To better understand this sustained low level, this thematic focus first takes stock of how unemployment evolved over the past decade, and then examines how the underlying worker flows have changed. This reveals whether changes in the unemployment rate reflect differences in how quickly people find work, how often they lose their jobs, and how many people move into and out of the labour market. The analysis provides further insights into how, not just whether, labour markets are changing.