Georgia’s Elections: Path from Friendship to Isolation

On October 26, the country of Georgia held parliamentary elections, which, according to the results of the government-appointed Central Election Commission (CEC), granted the Georgian Dream (GD) government a slim majority. The legitimacy of these results, however, is undermined by government actions both before and on election day and by the significant deterioration of democracy over the past several years. The GD government has the choice now to take on significant democratic reforms and reverse course, and if not, the United States and Europe must reevaluate the value of a partnership with an undemocratic Georgia.

Before the polls opened on election day, the pre election environment was not conducive to credible elections. The GD government's implementation of the new foreign agents lawto stifle and intimidate civil society, violent physical attacks on civil society, political, and media figures, GD's refusal to implement promised electoral reform, widespread disinformation campaigns, and a climate of fear and intimidation all shaped the political landscape. The government campaigned on a pledge of autocratic measures , including the elimination of all opposition parties and "Nuremburg" trials to imprison representatives from civil society, media, and opposition who have criticized them. The government, aided by Kremlin information campaigns, stoked fear, warning of war if voters did not choose GD. The government also employed lawfare to go after watchdog organizations, even raiding the offices of an international NGO.

The campaign period was also marked by familiar tactics of government intimidation, particularly of state employees, abuse of state resources, vote buying, and sporadic violence.

Having lived in Georgia for years, and having led multiple international election monitoring missions there, I can attest that the widespread violations on election day surpassed previous elections. Local observers reportedmultiple cases of voter intimidation, obstruction of observers, violence, ballot stuffing, double voting, confiscation of personal IDs, and other significant irregularities across the country. Hundreds of videos, photos, and other pieces of evidence have been released, including haunting images of the bloodied faces of independent election monitors. The four main opposition party groups, together with Georgian President Salome Zourabichvili, have declared the elections invalid, will boycott parliament, and have called for citizen protests.

Two trusted international exit pollsters, Edison Research and HarrisX, showed Georgian Dream only earned between 40 and 42 percent of the vote, and the combined opposition well above 50 percent, which is also consistent with pre election polling. Analysis of election data also casts doubt on the results, such as the finding that certain districts delivered 80 percent to GD, when in previous elections the ruling party did not even clear 40 percent there, an implausible leap.

While the true results of these elections may never be known, the international community can clearly question their fairness and legitimacy. Calling for investigations of irregularities will reveal little - while GD may roll out a few sacrificial lambs in an attempt to placate, never in Georgia's electoral history has there been serious adjudication of complaints, just as not a single case has been brought against the many perpetrators of violence against democracy activists over the past year.

The GD government has already signaled it wants a "reset" with the U.S. and Europe, suggesting that positive partnership should continue, with Georgia on a path to EU and NATO membership. U.S. and European leaders must reject this overture.

Future partnership should be contingent on concrete democratic deliverables. Immediately, the international community should request a multiparty commission, perhaps using the previous Charles Michel format, to commit to election reforms and the restructure of the CEC. Demands for the annulment of election results and new elections in certain constituencies should be considered.

Other deliverables should include the repeal of the foreign agents law and anti-LGBTQlaw, which hinders freedom speech and association. Further, there should be immediate accountability for the security forces who committed violence against democracy activists, as well as other perpetrators. GD MPs, for example, have openly stated that they are behind many of the attacks, with one MP sharing a video of their crimes. They must be brought to justice. Power-sharing arrangements in parliament and government can be explored. For example, in exchange for the opposition agreeing to enter parliament, they should be given committee chairs, particularly on committees with significant oversight responsibilities, such as budget and security. Early elections must also be on the table given the deep distrust in the election process.

There must also be a rhetorical turnaround. For the last several years, GD leaders have hurled insultsat its Western partners, calling them the "global war party," among other names. One GD MP clearly stated , "The EU is not the point" and argued that Georgia should not join a body that is immoral. Prime Minister Kobakhidze has called the U.S. an enemy and liar, claiming it had attempted two "revolutions" in Georgia. Notably, this rhetoric has been supported by the Kremlin, which has accused the West of being behind democracy protests and promisedto support Georgia in a colored revolution.

If the Georgian government does not deliver, which I suspect it won't, U.S. and European policymakers must determine their future relationship with the country. Certainly, we have engagement with undemocratic regimes around the world, due to economic or other strategic interests. But our relationship with Georgia has always been based on shared values - not oil or trade. Democracy has been Georgia's greatest asset. Without it, there is little to be gained from partnership and much to be cautious about. With GD's close ties to the Kremlin - parroting Kremlin talking points on Ukraine, serving as a sanctions-evasion route for Russia, re-opening flights with Russia, and providing a safe haven for Russians (unless they are from the opposition or civil society) - they should not be a trusted partner for sharing intelligence or cooperating on anti-terrorism efforts.

The path forward is isolation of the GD government - including the implementation of pending sanctions legislation in Congress - while embracing tightly Georgia's brave democrats in civil society, independent media, and the opposition who deserve our increased support and friendship.

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