UCSD - University of California - San Diego

02/18/2026 | Press release | Distributed by Public on 02/18/2026 11:12

Trust in Elections Declines across Party Lines Ahead of 2026 Midterms, UC San Diego Survey Finds

Published Date

February 18, 2026

Article Content

Key Takeaways

  • Confidence in U.S. elections has fallen significantly across party lines since 2024, with voters from both parties skeptical about recent redistricting efforts.
  • Many Americans expect Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officers at polling places in 2026 - and across racial and ethnic groups, many say that presence would lower their confidence in the vote count.

Americans are less confident in U.S. elections than they were a year ago - Democrats, Republicans and independents alike.

In a national survey from the Center for Transparent and Trusted Elections (CTTE) at the University of California San Diego, produced in collaboration with the university's Yankelovich Center for Social Science Research, 60% of respondents said they are confident votes will be counted accurately nationwide in the 2026 midterms. Just after the 2024 presidential election, that figure stood at 77%, a 17-point drop.

The survey of 11,406 eligible voters, conducted Dec. 19, 2025 through Jan. 12, 2026, shows trust declining by 17 percentage points among Republicans, 13 points among Democrats and 16 points among independents. The decline spans party lines, though the sources of skepticism vary.

Redistricting draws broad skepticism

Skepticism about congressional redistricting cuts across party lines. Only 27% of Democrats, 21% of independents and 35% of Republicans say they trust that district lines are drawn in a way that fairly reflects what voters want.

When asked whether recent redistricting efforts amount to attempts to "rig" the 2026 midterms, respondents primarily blamed the opposing party. But nearly a quarter of members of each party also assigned responsibility to their own leaders.

"When both parties see redistricting as 'rigging,' it's a sign of a deeper legitimacy problem: Our data show voters don't believe the lines are being drawn for fairness - they think they're being drawn for advantage," Thad Kousser, CTTE co-director and professor in the Department of Political Science in the School of Social Sciences.

On other election practices, partisan differences remain pronounced. Republicans expressed higher levels of distrust about mail ballots and whether noncitizens will be prevented from casting ballots, while Democrats' distrust focused on redistricting efforts.

Expectations of ICE at polls

Looking ahead to 2026, 37% of respondents said it is likely that Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officers will be present at voting sites in their area. That expectation was reported by 45% of Hispanic respondents, 44% of Black respondents, 41% of Asian American respondents and 33% of white respondents.

Across racial and ethnic groups, more respondents said ICE presence would make them less confident rather than more confident that votes in their community would be counted as intended. Thirty-one percent of Asian American respondents, 31% of Hispanic respondents, 21% of Black respondents and 8% of white respondents agreed with the statement: "I worry that going to the polls could put me at risk of being questioned by federal immigration officers, despite being a U.S. citizen."

"Our data reveal it's not just an abstract fear - many voters expect ICE at their polling place, and that expectation erodes confidence in the count," said Lauren Prather, CTTE co-director and associate professor of political science at the School of Global Policy and Strategy.

A nonpartisan center focused on strengthening public confidence

The Center for Transparent and Trusted Elections, launched in 2025with support from the Election Trust Initiative, is a nonpartisan research initiative created to address declining public confidence in U.S. elections. Working with election officials nationwide - across states and party lines - the center produces empirical data on how election administration and communication practices affect voter trust.

The survey was conducted online using a nationally benchmarked sample designed to reflect the U.S. citizen voting-age population across race, ethnicity, age, gender and region. The margin of error for the full sample is plus or minus 0.9 percentage points.

For the full report, including detailed methodology and a complete list of co-authors, visit: https://yankelovichcenter.ucsd.edu/public-engagement/CTTE-Report-2025-2026_2.17.pdf

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