New Data on College Completion Shows Room for Improvement

A large share of California high school graduates who want to earn bachelor's degrees look first to the state's community colleges. Indeed, high school graduates in California are much more likely to enroll in a community college and much less likely to enroll in a four-year college than students in most other states. Given the well-documented social and economic benefits of earning a four-year degree-for the individual and the state-understanding the role of California's community colleges is critical. Newly released data sheds light on key questions: how many community college students are transferring to four-year institutions? How many then actually graduate? And what sort of differences do we see across California's schools and student groups?

The state's new Cradle to Career longitudinal student data system (C2C) allows us to accurately assess baccalaureate degree completion among recent public high school graduates based on whether they first enrolled at a state university or community college. C2C data covers the vast majority of students in California: 92% attend public (vs. private) high schools, according to California Department of Education (CDE) data for 2024-25. Among public high school students who enrolled in college, about 84% enrolled in a public college in California (52.4% at a community college and 31.4% at a public university), according to CDE data for high school graduates in 2021-22 (the most recent year available).

Public high school graduates who start at a California Community College are much less likely to earn a bachelor's degree than those who start at either a University of California (UC) or a California State University (CSU) campus. To some extent, this disparity is unsurprising, but the size of the gap is stark. Within eight years of high school graduation, only 16% of those who first entered a community college had earned a bachelor's degree at UC or CSU, compared to 72% of high school graduates who started at CSU or UC.

There are many reasons for this difference. Students who enter community colleges tend to be less academically prepared than those who enter public universities. Only 45% of recent high school graduates who enroll in a community college have completed the full set of college preparatory courses (known as the A-G requirement) compared to 93% who enroll in UC or CSU, according to CDE data for 2022. Moreover, the transfer process can be complicated, requiring students to navigate course requirements that vary across majors and university campuses. Also, while the vast majority of community college students initially want to transfer to four-year schools and earn a bachelor's degree, some are pursuing vocational or other goals.

While all high school graduates who first enter a community college are much less likely to earn any sort of postsecondary credential than those who first start at a state university, rates of transfer and college completion are lower for students who have historically been underrepresented in higher education. Across racial/ethnic groups, for example, only one out of every twelve Black students who start at a community college go on to earn a bachelor's degree at UC or CSU, compared to about one in three Asian students.

We also see wide gaps in attaining four-year degrees between public high school districts serving largely well-off students and those serving high shares of low-income students. In districts with the highest rates of baccalaureate completion among students who start at community colleges, less than one-third of the students are from low-income families. In districts with the lowest rates, over 90% of graduates are from low-income families.

The three districts with the highest shares of students who start in community college and end up graduating from UC or CSU (more than one in three)-Fremont Union High School District (in Silicon Valley), Irvine Unified School District, and Fremont Unified School District-serve large shares of students from well-off households. By contrast, fewer than one in ten students from Twin Rivers Unified School District (north of Sacramento), Fontana Unified School District, and San Bernardino City Unified School District-which serve large shares of low-income students-complete this journey.

Of course, these findings come with some important caveats. The C2C longitudinal data is only available for students who graduated from high school in 2014-15 and college-going and completion rates could have changed since then. Moreover, the data does not yet include private colleges-an important part of California's higher education landscape.

But the addition of more data is not likely to change the big picture: students who graduate from high schools serving large shares of low-income students and other historically underrepresented groups are far less likely to earn bachelor's degrees than their peers. If California wants to increase its numbers of college graduates, it must work to improve college preparation efforts at these high schools and find ways to improve college outcomes among their students.