Consumers A Bit More Confident About Today, Worried About Tomorrow

By SBE Council at 31 March, 2026, 2:33 pm

by Raymond J. Keating -

Amidst all kinds of challenges, from war to tariffs, consumer confidence still edged up in March, according to the latest report from The Conference Board. However, problems were well-evident as well, in particular, a continuing grim look at where income, business and labor markets are headed, not to mention inflation worries.

Specifically, it was noted:

"The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index edged up by 0.8 points in March to 91.8 (1985=100), from 91.0 in February. The Present Situation Index-based on consumers' assessment of current business and labor market conditions-increased by 4.6 points to 123.3. The Expectations Index-based on consumers' short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions-declined by 1.7 points to 70.9."

It also was pointed out that "the weight of rising costs due to tariff passthrough and spiking oil prices was evident among other measures in the survey like inflation expectations."

Dana M Peterson, Chief Economist for The Conference Board, said, "Consumer confidence ticked up again in March, as a modest improvement in consumers' views of current conditions outweighed a slight downshift in expectations for the future."

For good measure, "the Index has been on a general downward trend since 2021." In reality, when looking at the chart below from The Conference Board, the trend has been generally down since late 2018.

As always, it must be noted that surveys of how consumers feel can diverge notably from their actual undertakings in the marketplace. And work needs to be done as to how current economic, policy and societal events actually will affect consumers' views and actions.

Of course, there's a great deal of uncertainty swirling now regarding inflation, including costs for both businesses and consumers, as well as economic, income and job growth. In a sense, a mix on consumers' view isn't all that surprising, even as many might expect a bigger hit to confidence. That, however, very much is a qualified "for now" observation.

Raymond J. Keating is chief economist for the Small Business & Entrepreneurship Council. He is the author of " The Weekly Economist " book series, and 10 Points from Walt Disney on Entrepreneurship .