Stalagmites in Mexican caves reveal duration and severity of drought during the Maya collapse

"This period in Maya history has been a cause of fascination for centuries," said lead author Dr Daniel H. James, who conducted the research while a PhD student at Cambridge's Department of Earth Sciences. "There have been multiple theories as to what caused the collapse, such as changing trade routes, war or severe drought, based on the archaeological evidence the Maya left behind. But in the past few decades, we've started to learn quite a lot about what happened to the Maya and why, by combining the archaeological data with quantifiable climate evidence."

Starting in the 1990s, researchers began to piece together climate records with those left by the Maya, such as the dates they recorded on key monuments, to show that a series of droughts during the Terminal Classic was a likely contributor to the massive socio-political upheaval in Maya society.

Now, James and his co-authors from the UK, US and Mexico have used the chemical fingerprints contained in stalagmites from a cave in the northern Yucatán to bring those droughts into much sharper focus.

Stalagmites form when water drips from the ceiling of a cave, and the minerals contained in the water grow into large deposits on the cave floor. By dating and analysing the layers of oxygen isotopes within the stalagmite, the researchers extracted highly detailed information about the climate in the Terminal Classic period. Earlier research has measured the oxygen isotopes contained in lake sediment to determine the severity of drought, but lake sediment does not contain enough detail to pinpoint climate conditions in any given year at a particular site.

"It hasn't been possible to directly compare the history of individual Maya sites with what we previously knew about the climate record," said James, who is now a postdoctoral researcher at University College London (UCL). "Lake sediment is great when you want to look at the big picture, but stalagmites allow us to access the fine-grained detail that we've been missing."

Earlier research on stalagmites has determined annual average rainfall amounts during the Terminal Classic, but the Cambridge-led team have now been able to go further, and isolate information from individual wet and dry seasons, thanks to relatively thick (about 1mm) annual layers in the stalagmite used in this study. The specific oxygen isotopes in each layer are a proxy for wet-season drought.