Transforming CEMAC’s Wealth into Long-term Development – Economic Barometer for the Central African Economic and Monetary Community – December 2025 Edition

The World Bank released the 9^th edition of the CEMAC Economic Barometer, a semi-annual report analyzing recent economic developments, outlook, and key challenges in the Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa (CEMAC), which includes Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, and the Republic of Congo. This edition's special topic explores pathways to sustainable growth by assessing national wealth and the role of the Congo Basin forests.

1. Modest Growth Amid Fiscal and Social Pressures

Economic activity in the CEMAC region expanded by 3.0% in 2024, up from 2.0% in 2023, but is forecasted to ease to 2.8% in 2025 - well below the 6.2% projected for the WAEMU region. Cameroon, Central African Republic, and Congo are set to see stronger growth in 2025, while Chad and Gabon anticipate slower gains and Equatorial Guinea is expected to face a contraction. Per capita income growth in CEMAC is projected to reach just 0.2% in 2025.

Inflation fell to 3.9% in March 2025 but remains above the 3% regional convergence criterion. Poverty is rising, with 37% of the region's 65 million people in extreme poverty i.e. under $3 per day (in 2021 PPP). Most new jobs are informal and in low productivity sectors, highlighting the need for reforms to create better employment opportunities.

Figure 1: Real GDP Growth in CEMAC and WAEMU (2020-2027)

The fiscal position weakened in 2024 as falling commodity revenues and higher spending resulted in a regional fiscal deficit of 1.3% of GDP. Public spending is rising faster than revenues, and debt remains high exceeding the 70% threshold in Congo and Gabon. A tight fiscal space limits the region's ability to manage shocks.

2. The CEMAC's Wealth Paradox

In addition to GDP, which is focused on production of goods and services, analyzing wealth accumulation trends provides a broader picture of growth sustainability. Between 1995 and 2020, CEMAC's total wealth rose by 75%, driven by gains in produced and human capital. However, per capita wealth declined by 20% as population growth outpaced asset accumulation. Produced capital, though the smallest component, grew fastest, while renewable natural capital fell from 49% to 32% of total wealth, reflecting ecological degradation and weak resource management.

Wealth growth has been uneven across CEMAC over 1995-2020, increasing mainly from gains in produced and human capital, while progress in natural capital has remained limited due to resource depletion. Congo, Chad, and Cameroon registered the largest wealth gains, supported by investments during the oil boom years. On average, CEMAC recorded a lower wealth growth compared to WAEMU, SSA, and other income groups.

Figure 2: Decomposition of wealth growth by asset category, percentage, 1995-2020

Sustainability indicators show mixed progress. Trends in adjusted net national income (ANNI) reveal that in some countries-such as Cameroon and Gabon-income growth has been supported by productive investment and human capital gains despite rising deforestation, while in others, notably Equatorial Guinea, past income growth came at the cost of environmental depletion.

3. The Role and Value of the Congo Basin Forests

CEMAC countries are custodians of the Congo Basin, the world's largest net carbon sink. These forests provide critical services - carbon sequestration, biodiversity, hydrological regulation, wood, bushmeat and wild plants - but their economic value is largely unremunerated. The value of carbon retention services (based on estimated social costs of emissions) is estimated at $209 billion - almost two and a half times the region's 2020 GDP - with the Republic of Congo ($86 billion), Gabon ($57 billion), and Cameroon ($52 billion) holding the largest shares, although the actual market value is likely far lower. Despite moderate deforestation, degradation and fragmentation are rising, and countries face technical, legal, and market barriers to monetizing forest carbon.

4. Policy Recommendations for Sustainable Wealth Management in CEMAC

To reverse declining per capita wealth and build resilience, the report recommends:

• Strengthening governance and public financial management to enhance transparency and efficiency in public spending, improving procurement, investment management, and oversight of state-owned enterprises.
• Investing in human capital and in infrastructure, by increasing and better targeting spending on education, vocational training, health, social protection, and energy, transport and digital infrastructure.
• Promoting sustainable management of natural resources, enhancing transparency and controls in extractive sectors, and stimulating local value addition and job creation in forestry, agriculture, and fisheries.
• Mobilizing climate finance and advocating for fair compensation for global climate services provided by the Congo Basin forests.
• Promoting diversification and sustainable growth of renewable natural capital, including support for ecotourism, agroforestry, improved agricultural productivity, and knowledge centers for medicinal plants and other forest-based wealth.
• Accelerating regional cooperation to harmonize policies, strengthen enforcement, coordinate public investments, attract international funding, and leverage economies of scale.

A robust governance framework and bold reforms under the PREF-CEMAC II and upcoming Regional Economic Program are also essential to create more job opportunities and improve living standards across the region.