Spring Runoff Projections for Colorado River Basin Worsen

WASHINGTON- The Bureau of Reclamation today released the February 24-Month Study, which highlights the worsening hydrologic conditions across the Colorado River Basin. A lack of precipitation over the past month has pushed the most probable water year inflow forecast for Lake Powell down by 1.5 million-acre feet (maf) since January - now roughly 3.0 maf lower than projections made in November. That loss is equivalent to approximately 50 feet in elevation in Lake Powell.

"The basin's poor hydrologic outlook highlights the necessity for collaboration as the Basin States, in collaboration with Reclamation, work on developing the next set of operating guidelines for the Colorado River system," stated Acting Commissioner Scott Cameron. "Available tools will be utilized and coordination with partners will be essential this year to manage the reservoirs and protect infrastructure."

The water year inflow is now estimated at just 52% of average, and as a result, the February 24-Month Study projects, for the first time, that Lake Powell could decline (based on most probable projections) to:

• 3,490 ft - minimum power pool in December 2026; below this level Glen Canyon Dam's ability to release water is reduced and it can no longer produce hydropower.
• 3,476 ft - in March 2027; the lowest elevation on record since filling further constraining the ability to release of water from Glen Canyon Dam.

To help boost Lake Powell's elevation, Reclamation began adjusting monthly releases on Dec. 1, 2025, to temporarily retain more water in the reservoir. Additional operational tools remain available through 2026 and will likely need to be implemented if hydrologic conditions remain as projected or deteriorate further. Protecting reservoir elevations in 2026 is important to ensure the dams can continue reliable delivery of water and generation of power.

Reclamation continues to monitor hydrologic conditions and apply the best available information to guide operational decisions that support the long-term stability of the Colorado River system.