USF supply chain expert on gas prices, shipping and the Strait of Hormuz

By John Dudley, University Communications and Marketing

As tensions in the Middle East continue to make headlines, experts warn that disruptions thousands of miles away can quickly affect everyday life in the United States - especially when it comes to fuel prices, shipping costs and the price of consumer goods.

The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway connecting the Persian Gulf to global shipping routes, plays a major role in the movement of oil and natural gas around the world. Seçkin Özkul, assistant professor in the University of South Florida's Muma College of Business and director of USF's Supply Chain Innovation Lab, explains why instability in the region matters to consumers, how companies prepare for supply chain disruptions and what Americans may notice if tensions escalate.

Why does the Strait of Hormuz matter so much to everyday Americans - even if they've never heard of it?

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world's most important energy shipping routes. A significant portion of global oil and liquefied natural gas moves through that narrow passage every day. Even if consumers have never heard of it, disruptions there can quickly affect fuel prices, transportation costs and ultimately the price of many everyday goods in the United States.

How can tensions or disruptions in the region affect the prices people pay for things like gasoline, groceries and online purchases?
When uncertainty increases in the region, energy prices often rise almost immediately. Higher fuel and transportation costs then move through the supply chain, affecting trucking, shipping, warehousing and manufacturing costs. Over time, consumers may see higher prices at the gas pump, in grocery stores and even for online purchases that rely on global transportation networks.

What happens behind the scenes when shipping companies and global suppliers think the Strait of Hormuz could become unstable?

Companies begin activating contingency plans very quickly. They may reroute shipments, increase inventory levels, secure alternative suppliers or delay certain movements until risks become clearer. Shipping insurance costs can also rise significantly. In many cases, firms start preparing before an actual disruption occurs because uncertainty itself creates operational and financial risk.

Are today's global supply chains better prepared for this kind of disruption than they were before the COVID-19 pandemic?

In many ways, yes. The COVID-19 pandemic exposed major vulnerabilities in global supply chains, and many firms have since invested in better visibility, risk monitoring, supplier diversification and contingency planning. However, supply chains are still highly interconnected, and major geopolitical disruptions can still create ripple effects globally, especially in energy and transportation markets.

What are the warning signs consumers and businesses should watch for if the situation in the region worsens?

Additional spikes beyond the fuel price increases already experienced since the beginning of the Strait of Hormuz conflict are often among the earliest warning signs. Businesses also closely monitor shipping delays, freight rate increases, insurance premiums and further geopolitical escalation in the region. For consumers, sudden jumps at the gas pump or noticeable price increases in transportation-dependent goods can signal that broader supply chain pressures are intensifying.

When the Strait returns to functioning as before, how long will it take for prices to go back down?

Prices do not always fall as quickly as they rise. Energy markets tend to react immediately to uncertainty, but supply chains take time to stabilize. Depending on the severity and duration of the disruption, it could take several weeks or even months for transportation costs, inventories and consumer prices to fully normalize.