Australia: Grain and Feed Update

Following drought-breaking rains in northern New South Wales and southern Queensland in late May and June, and generally favorable early winter seasonal conditions across much of Australia's cropping regions, FAS/Canberra has revised upward its forecasts for wheat and barley production in MY 2026/27. However, the declaration of El Niño conditions by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology in mid-June presents a significant downside risk to production prospects as the season progresses. Wheat exports are also forecast higher and barley exports are anticipated to reach the second highest level after a record estimate for the prior year. Sorghum production and exports are forecast to decline due to a drier outlook ahead of planting. Rice production is forecast to decline to a very low level for MY 2026/27. This is expected to result in reduced exports and higher imports as domestic supplies tighten.