Philippines: Grain and Feed Update

FAS Manila lowers its milled rice production forecast and maintains its consumption forecast for Marketing Year 2026/27, as a moderate to strong El Niño and elevated fertilizer costs weigh on production even as demand holds steady despite elevated retail prices. Rice imports are maintained to offset the anticipated production shortfall, consistent with Department of Agriculture guidance on building buffer stocks against drought and monsoon risk. The Philippine Department of Agriculture has halted premium-grade rice imports, is unlikely to extend the retail price cap, and is advancing a safeguard investigation; a proposed policy linking import allocations to local farmer support awaits passage of pending legislation. Corn production forecast is lowered for MY 2026/27 on reduced yield, while imports rise sharply on strong feed-sector demand. Wheat consumption and imports hold steady, as milling wheat demand offsets a feed-driven shift toward corn, while peso depreciation adds to import costs.