Can the next U.S. president help bring about de escalation or a ceasefire in the Israel Gaza war

Brandeis Stories

Can the next U.S. president help bring about de-escalation or a ceasefire in the Israel-Gaza war?

In the run-up to the presidential election, Brandeis Stories asked university faculty to provide expert analysis and insight into some of the issues raised during this campaign season.

By Gary Samore
October 21, 2024

Does the death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar create an opportunity to finally end the bloody Gaza War? Hoping so, the Biden administration has renewed its efforts to mediate a cease fire and hostages release deal between Israel and Hamas. Early indications are not encouraging. After Sinwar's death, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that Israel will continue fighting in Gaza until "Hamas lays down its arms and releases all our hostages." In response, Khalil al-Hayya, Sinwar's deputy and potential successor, repeated Hamas' long-standing demand that the Israeli hostages will only be released if Israel agrees to a permanent ceasefire and withdraw all Israeli forces from Gaza.

As long as Israel and Hamas are determined to keep fighting each other, there is little the Biden administration can do to force a ceasefire before the U.S. elections. President Biden's administration is reluctant to pressure Israel to accept a ceasefire because it would give former President Trump an opening to attack his opponent as anti-Israel. Since Prime Minister Netanyahu favors Trump to win a second term, he has no incentive to accept a ceasefire deal that could help Vice President Harris win over Arab American voters in key swing states such as Michigan. In any event, Netanyahu's far right coalition partners have threatened to force new elections in Israel if he accepts a ceasefire deal.

If Trump wins, Netanyahu can safely ignore appeals from Biden for a ceasefire in the period between the U.S. elections and the Trump inauguration on January 20, 2025. If Harris wins, Biden will be in a stronger position to press Netanyahu to make a deal before President-elect Harris takes office, including threats to withhold military support. However, pressure on Netanyahu will only be effective if Biden can also enlist Egypt, Jordan, and Qatar to convince Hamas to make concessions as well. Mediating a deal between bitter enemies is never easy.

To complicate matters further, the U.S. is supporting Israel's major ground and air campaign against Hezbollah in Lebanon, hoping that Hezbollah (and its patron, Iran) will be forced to accept a ceasefire based on United Nations Security Resolution 1701, which requires Hezbollah to retreat beyond the Litani River in southern Lebanon. The U.S. is also committed to defend Israel when it retaliates against Iran's Oct. 1 ballistic missile attack on Israel. (In exchange for U.S. missile defense assistance, Netanyahu has reportedly agreed not to attack nuclear or oil targets in Iran.) In short, the U.S. cannot easily pressure Israel over Gaza, while simultaneously supporting Israeli actions against Hezbollah and defense against Iran.

In these circumstances, it will be difficult for the incoming U.S. President - whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris - to achieve a ceasefire in Gaza or prevent a further escalation of fighting between Israel and Hezbollah and between Israel and Iran. At some point, however, the parties to the various conflicts will likely exhaust themselves and look for a way out. This will create opportunities for the U.S. - along with its allies in the region and internationally - to craft proposals for a ceasefire and pathways toward political settlement.

Gary Samoreis Crown Family Director and Professor of the Practice of Politics.