September 14, 2026 Market Commentary

The Week in Three Numbers

121 - The new Kansas yield as projected by the USDA, down 5 bu./acre from 126.

9.685% - The new, projected stocks to use ratio, down from the previous 10.122%.

80% - Odds that the Federal Reserve will raise the interest rate by 25 basis points according to Polymarket as of Sunday night.

Markets

Last week was a bit of a rocky one with interesting price action following the release of the September WASDE. There was action all over our 12-week closings board with new bolds in a number of places. Soybeans dropped the old bold red of 11.42 off the board, setting the new low at 11.47, which should drop off the board in a couple of weeks. Live cattle dropped their bold green number of 239.98, while the new one will drop off again next week. No bolds dropping off the feeder market, but we did see a considerable increase in the close as well as increases in all three moving averages. The current 12-week high is set to drop off the board next week as well.

We'll get to the ag markets after we discuss the WASDE report but first let's look at the fuel and finance markets a bit.

We saw the second week of new highs in the crude market with a new 52-week high, while also see the fourth straight week of highs in gasoline prices with a new 52-week high. The Middle East continues to provide an upward pull on the fuel market. The CPI report for the month of August confirmed what we've been feeling with another month of 3.5% year-over-year inflation being propped up by a 2.1% increase in the energy index from July. That increase now has the energy index over 16% higher from a year ago. Yikes.

Meanwhile, that inflation also pushed Treasury yields higher with a second straight week of new highs for the 10-year treasury note. Keep an eye out this week for the FOMC meeting where there's a high likelihood that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in an effort to curb the higher-than-desired inflation rate.

Now, back to the ag markets. I mentioned last week that we'd need new information, and we got it… kind of. The September WASDE report dropped production as we generally anticipated.

However, ProFarmer still has the lowest numbers. The lead up to the report showed significant trading volatility with what could be called pre-report positioning. I mentioned last week that we were record long from the funds and it seems they moved around a little bit before the report in case the report showed something bearish, which it didn't. That pricing action can really be seen in the five-day chart.

Corn dropped down to 5.30, which was down about three cents from where it opened Friday, but really, it's been down since about September 2^nd. We hit that double ceiling just under 5.50 but have dropped down as low as 5.23 after the report. The 20-, 50-, and 200-day moving averages also dropped slightly. This action snapped three straight weeks of new highs.

One interesting thing to notice from our closing tables is a small trend. Over the last nine weeks, we went three straight highs, backed off for three weeks, then back up three straight weeks. Might be something we keep an eye on.

Overall, the report came out somewhat in line with expectations. We knew the USDA wouldn't drop their numbers as low as ProFarmer, at least not in this report.

Soybean ending stocks came in just a bit larger than expected at around 310, which coincided with a 13 cent drop, despite setting a new 52-week high. Soybeans, like corn, was near-record long and saw quite a bit of repositioning right around the report.

Ending stocks for both corn and soybeans were down from last month, generally in line with market expectations. The drop in corn stocks came largely from the USDA lowering yield from 180.7 to 178.5 bushels per acre, cutting production by 213 million bushels. The USDA partially offset that loss by reducing feed and residual use by 150 million bushels, but ending stocks still fell 86 million bushels to 1.567 billion. With the tighter balance sheet, the USDA raised its projected season-average farm price 30 cents to $4.80 per bushel.

Demand took a slight hit, though not enough to offset the decrease in production. One could expect that as the season progresses, if we continue to see production erode, that demand will erode as well on the higher price. If that stocks to use ratio starts going down further, you'll start to see the price shoot up to where we might see a rationing of demand.

Wheat dropped four cents, which after the report, is actually stronger than the initial drop. The current bold red from our closings will drop off next week. Throughout the week, oil and wheat news were traded quite aggressively. It seemed like any time wheat or oil were up the corn market wanted to follow. Check out the five-day chart with corn in blue.

Now's where we really connect the oil, finance, and corn market. We've got $100 crude, record high diesel, hotter-than-expected inflation, and a high likelihood of increased interest rates. If the Fed raises rates, the generally means the U.S. dollar goes up. We saw the Dollar index increase slightly week-over-week, which is usually a bearish indicator for commodities from an export perspective. A stronger dollar means the exchange rate favors imports, not exports.

On the flip side, if crude oil continues to increase as it has been, that generally tries to drag corn and soybeans along with it. The one-year chart showing WTI crude oil with corn in blue really shows this trading symmetry.

Inflation also generally leads to the funds further jumping into the commodity markets as a safer bet than other investments. Corn has historically been bought relatively aggressively alongside upticks in inflation.

Going forward, we'll have to keep an eye on the harvest as the next few reports and the information that comes with them will really be important.

Meanwhile, the last week in Kansas showed crop conditions remaining largely the same, with a slight improvement at the bottom end, offset by a slight deterioration on the top end.

Nationally, we're largely unchanged from a week ago with a slight deterioration from Excellent to Good.

The drought monitor will be something that could give more information as we go along. A slight worsening of the drought as we add in yellow to northern Kansas as well as the southern portion of the corn belt.

Despite the increase in the drought, rains across Kansas helped the soil moisture from Monday's report. We saw significant improvements in both topsoil and subsoil moisture levels.

However, the forecast looks like that could be alleviated throughout much of the Midwest.

We saw in last week's crop progress that somehow crop conditions in Kansas simultaneously got better and worse and that forecast shows why.

And temperatures remain hotter than normal.

Looking Ahead

As harvest moves along we'll watch for reports on how that's progressing, Kansas Corn will be providing those pretty regularly. The Crop Progress reports also bring out new numbers every Monday. Keep an eye on that FOMC meeting on the 15^th and 16^th. And finally, the USDA's Cattle on Feed report Thursday will give us our first look at cattle inventory in a while.

Stay safe out there!