May 01, 2026

DALLAS-The Texas Employment Forecast released by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas indicates jobs will increase 1.8 percent in 2026, with an 80 percent confidence band of 1.2 to 2.4 percent.

That would be an increase from the previous month's forecast.

The forecast is based on an average of four models that include projected national GDP, oil futures prices, and the Texas and U.S. leading indexes.

"Texas employment growth accelerated in March, pushing year-to-date growth to 1.7 percent," said Luis Torres, Dallas Fed senior business economist. "However, given several headwinds, we expect 2026 growth to be close to the lower end of the forecast's confidence band, around 1.2 percent. Declining immigration is constraining labor supply, while higher productivity is suppressing labor demand. Additionally, our Texas Business Outlook Surveys suggest employment growth remains sluggish, with heightened geopolitical uncertainty weighing on hiring and capital expenditure decisions. Meanwhile, high oil prices are expected to boost state economic activity only if they are sustained."

Additional key takeaways from the latest Dallas Fed report:

• The forecast suggests 260,100 jobs will be added in the state this year, and employment in December 2026 will be 14.6 million.
• Texas employment grew an annualized 3.9 percent in March, while February job growth was 0.2 percent, which was revised down.

In March, the unemployment rate, which takes into account changes in the total labor force along with other factors, was unchanged in Austin-Round Rock, Dallas-Plano-Irving, El Paso, Fort Worth-Arlington, and Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, according to seasonally adjusted numbers from the Dallas Fed.

The rate declined in Brownsville-Harlingen.

And the rate increased in San Antonio-New Braunfels.

The Texas statewide unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.3 percent in March.

Find out more about the Texas Employment Forecast, plus additional information on seasonally adjusted and benchmarked Texas jobs data and metro unemployment rates.

For additional economic information on Texas metros, visit At the Heart of Texas.