Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
09/28/2026 | Press release | Distributed by Public on 09/28/2026 08:34
Texas Manufactoring Outlook Survey
September 28, 2026
Texas manufacturing activity accelerates sharply even as outlook moderates
Texas manufacturing output growth accelerated sharply in September, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, jumped 13 points to 29.5, a reading suggestive of a robust pace of output expansion.
Other measures of manufacturing activity also pointed to rapid gains this month. The capacity utilization index jumped 11 points to 23.9, and the shipments index climbed 11 points to 24.8. The new orders index increased to 30.7 from 22.0. All three indexes registered above-average readings in September.
Perceptions of broader business conditions continued to improve in September, albeit unevenly. The general business activity index edged down to 9.8 from 11.6, while the company outlook index continued to improve but at a much slower pace, coming in at 8.7, down from 19.2. The outlook uncertainty index edged up three points to 11.3.
Employment growth picked up in September, while work hours were little changed. The employment index rose seven points to 15.1 from 8.0. The hours worked index was relatively unchanged at 5.6, similar to August's 5.9.
Price and wage pressures increased broadly in September. The finished goods prices index rose five points to 27.6, while the raw materials prices index advanced eight points to 52.2, well above its series average of 28.0. The wages and benefits index went up six points to 27.4.
Expectations are for continued growth in manufacturing activity six months from now. The future production index was little changed at 40.3, while the future general business activity index fell to 20.8 from 37.2, though it remained in solidly positive territory. Other indexes of future manufacturing activity signaled ongoing expansion.
Next release: Monday, October 26
Data were collected Sept. 15-23, and 63 of the 113 Texas manufacturers surveyed submitted responses. The Dallas Fed conducts the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey monthly to obtain a timely assessment of the state's factory activity. Firms are asked whether output, employment, orders, prices and other indicators increased, decreased or remained unchanged over the previous month.
Survey responses are used to calculate an index for each indicator. Each index is calculated by subtracting the percentage of respondents reporting a decrease from the percentage reporting an increase. When the share of firms reporting an increase exceeds the share reporting a decrease, the index will be greater than zero, suggesting the indicator has increased over the prior month. If the share of firms reporting a decrease exceeds the share reporting an increase, the index will be below zero, suggesting the indicator has decreased over the prior month. An index will be zero when the number of firms reporting an increase is equal to the number of firms reporting a decrease. Data have been seasonally adjusted as necessary.
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