Investigating the Recent Decline in Community College Enrollment

Community college enrollment has fallen sharply since 2010, which could have implications for the educational opportunities available to students as well as their subsequent labor market prospects. However, the ultimate effects on prospective students depend critically on whether the enrollment decline is due to demand or supply factors. On the demand side, prospective students might be choosing to forego a community college education to join or stay in the workforce or pursue a four-year degree. On the supply side, funding issues might be leading colleges to reduce program offerings, close campuses, or increase tuition, putting attendance out of reach for some prospective students.

Emily Pollard investigates the recent fall in community college enrollment and finds that enrollments likely declined primarily due to demand factors: A strong labor market appears to be keeping workers in the labor force, and decreased returns to an associate degree may be pushing more students to either attend four-year colleges or forego higher education entirely. She finds more modest effects thus far on the supply side. Looking ahead, demand is likely to fall even further, as the college-age population is expected to decrease due to the declining birth rate, creating new challenges for colleges and potentially reducing access to higher education.

Introduction

After decades of strong growth, community college enrollment has fallen sharply since 2010. From 2010 to 2023, community college enrollment fell by 22 percent, corresponding to 1.7 million fewer students. These declines have been broad based, with 42 out of 50 states reporting enrollment declines of more than 10 percent.

The shrinking of the community college sector could have implications for the educational opportunities available to students as well as their subsequent labor market prospects. Community colleges provide a lower-cost alternative to four-year colleges while still delivering a boost to lifetime earnings. They have proven particularly popular with low-income and nontraditional students.

However, the economic effects of a shrinking community college sector on prospective students depend critically on whether the decline is due to demand or supply factors. On the demand side, prospective students might be choosing to forego a community college education to join or stay in the workforce or pursue a four-year degree. On the supply side, funding issues might be leading colleges to reduce program offerings, close campuses, or increase tuition, putting attendance out of reach for some prospective students.

In this article, I investigate the recent fall in community college enrollment and discuss factors that may have contributed to the decline. I find that enrollments likely declined primarily due to demand factors: A strong labor market appears to be keeping workers in the labor force, and decreased returns to an associate degree may be pushing more students to either attend four-year colleges or forego higher education entirely. On the supply side, reduced enrollments have strained the sector, leading to program and campus closures, which may have pushed additional students out of the sector. However, thus far, these effects appear modest. Looking ahead, demand is likely to fall even further, as the college-age population is expected to decrease due to a steady decline in the birth rate since 2007. This decline creates new challenges for colleges across the country, which could lead to diminished access to higher education for prospective students.

Section I provides background on the community college sector and documents the decline in enrollments. Section II explores demand and supply factors that may have contributed to enrollment declines. Section III considers how trends in enrollment might evolve in the years ahead.

I. Overview of the Community College Sector

Community colleges are public institutions that primarily grant associate degrees rather than bachelor's or graduate degrees. However, some community colleges offer limited bachelor's degree programs.^_ Many community colleges also offer postsecondary non-degree certificates or enroll non-degree-seeking students who take classes on an ad hoc basis. Community colleges offer both academic and vocational coursework. Academic associate degrees, such as in the liberal arts and sciences, prepare students to transfer credits toward a four-year degree. Vocational associate degrees and certificates prepare students for specific careers-for example, as medical assistants, dental hygienists, and medical technicians.

Community colleges serve a diverse and distinct student body. In contrast with the majority white makeup of four-year colleges, more than half of community college students do not identify as white. Community colleges also enroll students from a wide age range. Only about half of community college students are between the ages of 18 and 24, compared with nearly 80 percent of students attending four-year public colleges. Additionally, while community colleges started out equally popular with both high- and low-income students, over time, they have come to disproportionately serve low-income students (Bleemer and Quincy 2025; Sockin 2021). Community college students are also much more likely to attend school on a part-time basis. Over two-thirds of community college students attend college part-time, compared with a little less than one-third of students attending four-year public colleges (U.S. Department of Education 2025).

Until recently, the community college sector had seen decades of rapid growth. Following World War II, President Harry Truman commissioned a report on higher education that called for the creation of public "community colleges" across the country, with the goal of expanding access to higher education through a low-cost, easily accessible alternative to a four-year degree (Ullrich 2023). Over the next few decades, hundreds of community colleges opened across the country; by 1980, community colleges enrolled about 40 percent of all first-time college students (Bleemer and Quincy 2025).

However, community college enrollments peaked in 2010 and have since fallen precipitously. Chart 1 plots data on fall undergraduate enrollment at community colleges (blue line) and four-year public colleges (purple line). From 1985 to 2010, both community colleges and four-year public colleges saw large enrollment gains. Community college enrollments almost doubled, rising from 4.3 million students to 7.7 million students. However, starting in 2010, the two sectors diverged. From 2010 to 2021, community college enrollments fell by 2.0 million, or 26 percent. While the sector saw small gains in 2022 and 2023 as pandemic lockdowns eased, enrollments remained well below their pre-pandemic level.

Notes: Fink and Jenkins (2020) show that two-year public college enrollments from the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) have become an unreliable proxy for community college enrollments, as a growing number of community colleges offer bachelor's degrees and are classified as four-year public colleges. However, the Community College Research Center (CCRC) provides community college enrollment data starting in 1996. I splice the data in 2003, when the two series begin to diverge. From 1985 to 2002, the chart shows data on total undergraduate fall enrollment at two-year and four-year public institutions from the NCES (Table 303.70 from the 2023 Digest of Education Statistics); from 2003 to 2023, the chart shows data on undergraduate fall enrollment at community colleges and noncommunity college four-year institutions from the CCRC.

Sources: CCRC, NCES, and author's calculations.

In contrast to community colleges, four-year public colleges saw undergraduate enrollment increases through 2019 and experienced more muted pandemic effects. However, the gains in four-year public undergraduate enrollment have been insufficient to make up for losses in community college enrollment.

II. Possible Factors for the Decline in Community College Enrollments

To better understand the decline in community college enrollments, I investigate possible demand and supply factors. On the demand side, enrollments could decrease if fewer people are interested in going to community college or if people find less value in community college and are thus unwilling to pay as much to attend. On the supply side, enrollments could decrease if the sector is unable to provide education to as many students due to closures or program cuts or if financial constraints force colleges to raise tuition to cover costs.

The source of the decline may determine its effect on prospective students. If the decline in enrollments is due to demand factors, the current community college infrastructure may be adequate to serve prospective students' needs. However, if the decline is due to supply factors, it may be that interested students are unable to access postsecondary education. Access issues could be particularly deleterious for low-income students who lack the means to absorb price increases or pivot to other kinds of education.

Demand factors

Demand factors influencing community college enrollments can include any changes outside the community college sector that affect prospective students' interest in attending community college. For example, changing labor market conditions may affect the tradeoff between attending a community college, enrolling in a four-year college, and working. In particular, the strong job market over the last 10 years may have made working a more appealing option than attending community college.

Community college enrollments are generally positively correlated with the unemployment rate. As labor market conditions deteriorate, unemployed individuals may see education as a way to better compete for available jobs. Additionally, for prospective students, the cost of foregoing work during their degree diminishes (Felix and Pope 2010). Using data from 1990 to 2007, Goodman and Winkelmann (2025) find that a 1 percentage point increase in the local unemployment rate is associated with a 2 percent rise in first-time community college enrollment.^_

Recent data show a similar pattern. Chart 2 plots community college enrollments as a percentage of the total U.S. population (blue line) alongside the unemployment rate (purple line). Both series trended up during the 2001 recession and the Great Recession and fell during the 2003-06 and 2010-19 expansions. Overall, from 1996 to 2019, the correlation between the community college enrollment rate and the unemployment rate was 89 percent.^_ The strong relationship between these series suggests that improved labor market conditions relative to the Great Recession may have led individuals to forego a community college education, contributing to decreased enrollments. In fact, Goodman and Winkelmann (2025) estimate that improved local labor market conditions can explain 60 percent of the decline in first-time community college enrollments seen from 2009 to 2019.

Note: Shaded bars denote National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)-defined recessions.

Sources: CCRC, NBER, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Haver Analytics), U.S. Census Bureau (Haver Analytics), and author's calculations.

While a strong job market may have lured prospective students away from community college, the returns to an associate degree may also have deteriorated relative to a bachelor's degree or even a high school diploma, leading to decreased interest in community college. Indeed, associate degree holders are seeing fewer job opportunities and lower real wages than in 2010. The left panel of Chart 3 plots employment in occupations that typically require an associate degree as a percentage of total employment (blue bars). In 2010, 5.6 percent of employment was in occupations typically requiring an associate degree; by 2023, that number had fallen to 2 percent. This decline was driven by changing educational requirements. The black outlined bar shows that if educational requirements for occupations had held constant at their 2010 levels, employment in occupations typically requiring an associate degree would make up about 6.7 percent of employment.^_ This gap has largely been driven by an increase in educational requirements, especially for managerial roles and registered nurses, which now commonly require a bachelor's degree.^_ The increased educational requirements have reduced the employment opportunities available to associate degree holders.

Notes: Employment data are from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 2010 and 2023 Employment Projections datasets. Wage data are from Table 502.30 of the 2023 Digest of Education Statistics.

Sources: NCES, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, and author's calculations.

In this environment, the average wage of associate degree holders has declined relative to other education levels. The right panel of Chart 3 plots the percentage change from 2010 to 2019 in median annual inflation-adjusted earnings of full-time year-round workers age 25 to 34 by education. Associate degree holders saw notable real wage declines, with median earnings decreasing by about 5.7 percent. In contrast, high school diploma holders saw a smaller decline of only 0.4 percent, while bachelor's degree holders saw their median earnings increase by 4.2 percent over this period.^_

As earnings and employment opportunities have lagged, interest in terminal associate degrees appears to have diminished. The number of vocational associate degrees awarded has trended down since around 2011, driven by large reductions in the number of associate degrees awarded in business and healthcare programs. In contrast, the number of academic associate degrees awarded-degrees designed for transfer toward a four-year bachelor's degree- continued to grow.^_ In fact, the 2022 Survey of Entering Student Engagement found that 83 percent of entering community college students reported having plans to transfer to a four-year college or university (CCCSE 2023). This divergence supports the idea that diminished labor market prospects for associate degree holders, particularly in healthcare and business professions, may have played a role in the decline in enrollments. While community colleges are still drawing students with the prospect of a cheaper path to a four-year degree, students report the transfer process to be difficult and costly, and growth in academic associate degrees has been insufficient to make up for enrollment losses elsewhere (Binkley 2023; CCCSE 2023). Decreased returns to a terminal associate degree may be leading some students to instead enroll in a four-year institution or enter the workforce.

Supply factors

On the supply side, enrollments could decrease if financial constraints-for example, decreased government funding or increased labor costs-led community colleges to reduce program offerings, close campuses, or raise tuition, making community college less accessible to prospective students.

Community colleges are particularly reliant on government funding, making them vulnerable to government funding changes. During the 2021-22 school year, government funding from local, state, and federal governments made up 79 percent of total revenue for two-year public colleges-a proxy for community colleges-compared with 41 percent for four-year public colleges.^_ This funding includes financial aid grants (such as Pell grants) to students, research grants to colleges, and government appropriations. However, Chart 4 shows that inflation-adjusted government funding for two-year public colleges per full-time equivalent student (blue line) has increased relative to the 2010-11 school year.^_ Per-student government funding increased steadily from the 2011-12 school year to the 2018-19 school year. Pandemic-era federal funding provided an additional boost through the 2021-22 school year.^_ These data suggest that changes in government funding policy are likely not the primary driver of declines in community college enrollment.

Notes: Shaded bars denote NBER-defined recessions. Government funding categories include operating and non-operating revenue from government-provided grants and contracts and non-operating revenue from government appropriations from local, state, and federal governments. Enrollment is based on fall enrollment. Series is inflation-adjusted using headline CPI, calculated at the school-year level (September to May) to match the funding data. Chart data are calculated using the following Digest of Education Statistics tables: 2023 edition: Tables 307.10 and 333.10; 2020 edition: Table 333.10; 2017 edition: Table 333.10; 2011 edition: Table 366; 2009 edition: Table 352.

Sources: NBER, NCES, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Haver Analytics), and author's calculations.

At the same time, labor costs for the sector appear to have declined. Employee wages are the largest input cost in the education sector and can therefore have significant effects on college finances (Bundick and Pollard 2019). However, Chart 5 shows that while real wages for the economy as a whole have increased relative to the 2010-11 school year (blue line), the average inflation-adjusted salary of full-time instructional faculty at two-year public colleges has fallen by about 8 percent (green line). Although four-year public college faculty also saw real wage declines as inflation surged following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, the losses were smaller (purple line). The wage data suggest that wage costs per employee have declined for community colleges and, in turn, that a change in input costs is unlikely to have set off the enrollment declines.^_

Notes: The Employment Cost Index (ECI) series is calculated at the school-year level (Q3 of one year to Q2 of the next) to match the faculty salary data. Faculty salary data are from Table 316.10 of the 2023 Digest of Education Statistics.

Sources: NCES, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Haver Analytics), and author's calculations.

Despite an increase in per-student government funding and a reduction in per-employee wage costs, many community colleges may still face financial challenges. Per-institution government funding has faltered, and per-institution inflation-adjusted tuition revenue has decreased notably relative to the 2010-11 school year as enrollments declined.^_ Some colleges report cutting programs in an effort to manage costs (Guth 2024). Other colleges have been closed or consolidated in the face of budgetary constraints.^_ However, these losses and closures appear to be the result of declining enrollments rather than the main cause of them. Community colleges face fixed costs and limits on how much they can shrink. As enrollment numbers dwindle, total funding declines, and costs per student can rise, eventually making programs or campuses unsustainable.

However, enrollment-driven closures can lead to further enrollment declines. Even small gaps in geographic coverage can make community college inaccessible to some prospective students and may push them out of postsecondary education entirely. Using data from the 2002 Education Longitudinal Study, Grawe (2018) finds that the median distance between a two-year college student's college campus and high school is less than 15 miles. Additionally, Acton and others (2025) examine postsecondary enrollment for Texas high school graduates who went to high school at least half an hour away from the nearest two-year public college. They find that Black, Hispanic, and low-income students in these communities are more likely to forego postsecondary education than their peers who live closer to two-year public colleges. However, at this juncture, the number of closures appears modest and is unlikely to have played a major role in the enrollment declines.

One final way to assess whether supply factors could be driving enrollment declines is to examine changes in tuition. If enrollment declines were primarily due to supply factors such as financial constraints or college closures, then we would expect tuition prices to increase relative to other prices in the economy as community colleges raise prices to cover costs and prospective students compete over fewer slots. In contrast, if enrollment declines were primarily driven by reductions in demand, not supply, then we would expect tuition prices to be subdued relative to other prices in the economy as prospective students value a community college education less highly and are willing to pay less to attend.

Chart 6 plots the average net cost of attendance for first-time, full-time undergraduate students at two-year (green line) and four-year (purple line) public colleges. From the 2010-11 school year to the 2021-22 school year, the average net price of attendance at two-year public institutions rose by about 20 percent-less than the 24 percent increase for four-year public institutions. However, prices economy-wide (blue line) increased 28 percent over the same time period as measured by the core consumer price index (CPI). The gap between two-year public tuition price growth and CPI growth indicates that community college tuition has grown cheaper relative to other expenses, suggesting that demand effects outweigh supply effects in explaining the fall in community college enrollment.

Notes: Core CPI series is calculated at the school-year level (September to May) to match the net price data. Net price of attendance series are calculated based on first-time, full-time undergraduate students who receive any type of Title IV aid. In the 2021-22 school year, 87 percent of first-time, full-time undergraduate students received some kind of Title IV aid. Tuition data are from Table 331.30 in the 2014 through 2023 editions of the Digest of Education Statistics.

Sources: NCES, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Haver Analytics), and author's calculations.

III. The Path Ahead

Overall, demand rather than supply factors appear to have been the primary driver of the recent decline in college enrollments. While the current decline in demand is tied to cyclical labor market factors that may reverse, additional demand factors will weigh on community college enrollments going forward. Looking ahead, the falling birth rate poses substantial risk to the community college sector. Chart 7 shows the number of live births in the United States (blue line) alongside actual and projected values for the number of high school graduates (purple line). The number of births per year peaked in 2007 and has declined significantly since. The number of high school graduates 18 years later shows a similar trend: The Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (WICHE) projects that the number of high school graduates, and, in turn, the number of recent graduates entering postsecondary education, will peak in 2025 and trend down throughout the rest of the forecast horizon, mirroring the descent in the number of births (Lane, Falkenstern, and Bransberger 2024). Using his Higher Education Demand Index, Grawe (2018) estimates that community colleges will be disproportionately affected by this shock, with enrollments falling almost 20 percent faster at two-year colleges than for the higher education sector as a whole. Specifically, he estimates that two-year enrollments will fall 16 percent from 2025 to 2029.

Sources: National Center for Health Statistics (Haver Analytics) and Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (WICHE).

A further decline in enrollments would put additional stress on the sector, possibly leading to further program cuts and closures. These closures would create additional gaps in coverage, leaving fewer prospective students with a community college in their area. Closures and downsizing could also make community colleges ill-equipped to handle any subsequent increases in demand. For example, given the strong relationship between the unemployment rate and community college enrollments, a future labor market downturn could increase demand for community colleges; however, the sector may be unable to absorb such an increase if it continues to downsize.

The community college sector has weathered past declines in the birth rate, which may provide lessons for the current moment. When the U.S. birth rate steeply declined beginning in the late 1950s, institutions countered this trend by encouraging enrollment of underrepresented groups. For example, women's college enrollment increased rapidly during the 1970s, and postsecondary enrollments of students older than 35 doubled during that decade (Grawe 2018).

More recently, community colleges have continued to adapt by targeting new kinds of nontraditional students. Specifically, dual enrollment-high school students completing college coursework-has become an increasingly important source of enrollments for community colleges. While dual enrollment classes can be taught at high schools or on two- or four-year college campuses, they are predominantly conducted in partnership with community colleges (CCRC 2024). Approximately 71 percent of dual enrollments during the 2023-24 school year occurred through a community college (Fink 2025). Enrollment estimates from the Community College Research Center indicate that the number of community college students under the age of 18, a commonly used proxy for dual enrollment, more than doubled from 2013 to 2023. New survey data from the U.S. Department of Education that directly measure dual enrollment indicate that during the 2023-24 school year, community colleges enrolled 2 million dual enrollment students, accounting for 22 percent of total community college enrollment (Fink 2025). Dual enrollment students can also offer community colleges a double boost in enrollment, as studies show a positive relationship between dual enrollment during high school and future attendance at a two-year college (An 2022).

Community colleges are also increasingly adopting a hybrid model in which they offer some bachelor's degrees in addition to vocational and academic associate degrees and certificates. As of January 2024, 24 states had passed legislation allowing community colleges to offer bachelor's degrees (Community College Baccalaureate Association 2024). Although legislation often restricts which community colleges can offer bachelor's degrees, what sort of programs can be offered, or how many programs can be offered, these programs have still been influential on the sector.^_ Between 2000 and 2017, 95 community colleges began offering bachelor's degrees. As of the 2016-17 school year, these colleges made up about 10 percent of community colleges and enrolled approximately 1.4 million students (Fink and Jenkins 2020).

These hybrid programs could have positive influences on community colleges and the communities they serve. Wright-Kim (2022) finds that offering bachelor's degrees leads to higher enrollments at community colleges, including among older students and low-income students, suggesting that the hybrid model is effective in serving community colleges' unique student base. The hybrid model not only increases enrollments at these colleges, but also offers students increased program offerings. As a result, some students who had planned on transferring to a four-year school may elect to complete their bachelor's degree at their local community college. The ability of community colleges to provide some bachelor's degrees has also allowed them to adjust their program offerings to match changing job requirements. For example, the Community College Baccalaureate Association (2024) reported that, in 2023, the most common community college bachelor's degree program was in nursing, with 77 programs offered.^_

Thus far, growing interest in dual enrollment and community college bachelor's degree programs have been insufficient to offset enrollment losses elsewhere. However, further enrollment increases in these programs may help to soften the effects of the declining birth rate and keep colleges open, supporting community college access for prospective students in these communities.

Conclusion

Since 2010, community colleges across the country have seen an unprecedented decline in enrollments. I find that this decline is mostly due to demand factors. A low unemployment rate has made the opportunity cost of attending school too high for many who instead opt to join or remain in the workforce. At the same time, job prospects and earnings for associate degree holders appear to have diminished, particularly relative to those of bachelor's degree holders, providing further motivation for prospective students to either join the workforce or pursue a four-year degree.

Supply side factors do not appear to have played a dominant role in the fall in enrollments, but declining enrollments have strained the sector. Some community colleges have cut programs, and some community college campuses have closed. Program cuts and campus closures can result in geographic gaps in education availability that may push even more prospective students out of the community college sector and postsecondary education more generally. However, so far, closures appear limited, limiting their effect on aggregate enrollments.

Looking ahead, the declining birth rate is likely to put further stress on the community college sector. The number of high school graduates is projected to decline steadily over the next 18 years. Further reductions in community college enrollments could lead to more downsizing and college closures, resulting in larger gaps in availability. However, growing interest in community college dual enrollment programs and bachelor's degree programs may help to offset enrollment losses elsewhere and thereby help keep programs and campuses open.