New Tools Help Alaska Communities Prepare for Future Changes in Pacific Cod Distributions

Sand Point, Alaska, is a remote city in the Aleutians East Borough. It was founded in 1898 as a cod fishing station and trading post. Credit: NOAA Fisheries/Connor Maguire

Scientists conducted a new socio-economic risk assessment, combined with statistical modeling, on the risk of coastal Alaskan fishing communities to changes in Pacific cod distributions. Their insights may help these communities prepare and adapt to these changes.

Fishing is central to life in Alaska. North Pacific fisheries, including Pacific cod, support local, state, and national economies. They strengthen cultural ties and food security in coastal communities. The economic and social benefits derived from Alaskan fisheries are deeply connected to the resilience of fishing communities facing changing environmental conditions.

Alaska's commercial fisheries account for roughly 60 percent of the U.S. seafood harvest, and supply seafood to the United States and the globe. They also provide employment for one in seven Alaskan residents.

Communities Reliant on Pacific Cod Most at Risk

Pacific cod is one of the largest and most important commercial fisheries in the Gulf of Alaska and Eastern Bering Sea. It's also the lifeblood and economic mainstay for many small coastal fisheries and rural communities across the state. A declining Pacific cod fishery could have significant impacts on these communities.

Alaska Fisheries Science Center scientists found that coastal communities along the southeastern Bering Sea are most vulnerable. They are at greater relative risk if Pacific cod populations shift northward in response to environmental changes. At highest relative risk were those communities within the Aleutians East Borough and Bethel Census Area. The research was conducted as part of the Alaska Climate Integrated Modelingproject.

Map of the study census areas and spatially aligned commercial groundfish statistical areas as defined by the Alaska Department of Fish and Game.

For example, False Pass and Sand Point, two remote communities located in Aleutians East Borough, both harbor Pacific cod processing plants and fishing fleets that support local infrastructure. And the landlocked Bethel Census Area, which receives Community Development Quota, benefits from Pacific cod allocations. In addition to heavy engagement in commercial fisheries for Pacific cod, these areas have fewer alternative economic opportunities relative to urban regions, underscoring the importance of these fisheries.

"We considered the socioeconomic impacts to these communities under two possible futures-in which the Bering Sea experiences different levels of warming," said Sarah Stone, lead author and Ph.D. student at Oregon State University. "In both cases, we expect that Pacific cod will shift their summer distribution farther north, into the northern Bering Sea. This may make them less accessible to small-boat fisheries from the Aleutian East Borough and other eastern Bering Sea communities. These rural regions with fewer employment opportunities and high unemployment rates are among the most vulnerable."

A longline fishing boat offloads Pacific cod and halibut in Kodiak, Alaska. Credit: NOAA Fisheries/Paul Hillman

The amount of time communities have to adapt their fishing behaviors to mitigate losses varies under different future warming scenarios. Under less extreme warming conditions, fishing communities may have more time to develop adaptation strategies. In the case of Pacific cod, scientists do not expect to see additional significant long-term shifts in distribution until the late century. However, with more extreme warming, communities may need to adapt faster.

Variations in annual environmental conditions have already required many fisheries, including small-scale fisheries, to develop adaptation strategies to minimize economic losses. The study highlights the need for research that can inform adaptive management strategies to address both short-term changes and long-term shifts in fisheries distributions, such as Pacific cod.

"In the next couple decades, managers may want to focus on harvest levels across both the northern and southern eastern Bering Sea as species distributions fluctuate," said Kirstin Holsman, co-author of the study. "In the long term, there may be a more fixed summer population of Pacific cod in the northeastern Bering Sea. Our research could inform regionally tailored approaches to support the long-term sustainability of the Pacific cod fishery."

Sarah Wise, Alaska Fisheries Science Center social anthropologist and co-author added, "Managers and community members can play a crucial role in supporting informed adaptation, which is essential to mitigate socioeconomic risk in fishing dependent communities. They can do this by building social networks to share information and resources, planning for necessary infrastructure investments, and implementing strategies to improve community and fishery resilience."

Offloading Pacific cod from a longline fishing boat in Alaska. Credit: NOAA Fisheries/Paul Hillman

Continuing to conduct large-scale fishery assessments for Pacific cod and other commercially important fish and crab species in response to changing ocean conditions is essential. So is accurately accounting for Pacific cod catch by all participating vessels. However, resource managers must also consider impacts on individual fisheries and the people who rely on them. This is necessary to ensure sustainable harvests and continued social and economic success for these communities, all of which are critical mandates under the Magnuson-Stevens Act.

"We hope that this research can inform the development of community-specific management plans that incorporate local knowledge and address unique socioeconomic challenges," said Holsman.

Next Steps for Regional Socio-Economic Research

This study provides a valuable framework for assessing the impacts of a warming ocean on a single fishery. Future research should account for the multi-year variability in environmental conditions in the Eastern Bering Sea, which serves as a key driver of fishing community vulnerability. Changing ocean conditions, fluctuating fish distributions, and shifts in resource availability all contribute to challenges fishing-reliant communities must navigate.

By developing dynamic socioeconomic models in response to fisheries and community needs, scientists can explore potential adaptive strategies and changing social landscapes. This will provide a more comprehensive understanding of community vulnerability and resilience in the face of changing marine resource distributions.

These models can also include a wider range of relevant social and economic variables that contribute to adaptive capacity and reliance. Key factors such as access to affordable food, fuel costs, and permit accessibility could offer valuable insights into the economic landscape and the feasibility of different potential adaptation strategies. Expanding similar analyses to include additional species and geographic locations would enable broader insights into how changing fish distributions are affecting communities throughout Alaska and the United States.