CommSec analysts outline the sharemarket big themes for 2026

Geopolitics, tariffs and the role of China

Equity markets spent much of 2025 adjusting to shifting US tariff policies. Although early-year volatility was intense, CommSec's analysts expect some degree of "tariff fatigue" may continue into 2026. Even so, sudden announcements or changes in tone could still spark short-term swings.

China will also be central to how the year unfolds. As the world's second-largest economy and Australia's biggest trading partner, its growth settings carry global weight. A 4.5 - 5 per cent growth target is widely expected, though demand may soften if domestic conditions remain weak. Commodity markets, and particularly iron ore and oil, will respond to any shift in Chinese momentum.

Commodities and banks in the spotlight

Several commodities hit record highs in 2025, including gold, silver and copper. Gold-related stocks in Australia even doubled over the year, something Daghlian says is quite rare. While prices may not repeat those gains in 2026, the sector remains sensitive to geopolitical developments and interest rate expectations.

Bank shares will also be closely watched. All major Australian banks reached record highs this year, though some valuations appear stretched and November brought a sharp pullback. Earnings updates in early 2026 will give investors a clearer signal.

US midterm elections and the unknowns

The US midterm elections in November may add uncertainty, particularly around regulation and tax policy. Historically, markets often steady once elections pass, but the lead-up can be volatile. And beyond all the known events, CommSec's analysts reminded investors to expect surprises.

"It's worthwhile being aware of key upcoming events: central bank policy, the impact of AI on things, the change in the leadership of the Fed, tariffs, and what this could mean for markets," Daghlian says.

"But there's uncertainties. You don't know what happens. That's what makes markets exciting," he says.