National Restaurant Association of America
09/11/2025 | News release | Distributed by Public on 09/11/2025 10:44
Without immigration, U.S. population will shrink starting in 2031
Earlier this year, we highlighted the demographic headwinds facing the United States in the decades ahead. With slowing immigration and birth rates hovering near record lows, population growth will slow materially. At the same time, Baby Boomers will continue to retire, with Generation X not far from doing the same, limiting the labor force.
In that analysis, we cited projections from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released in January, which forecasted that deaths would begin to outpace births by 2033, meaning immigration would become the sole driver of population growth from that point forward. Put simply, without immigration, the U.S. population would begin to decline starting in 2033.
This week, the CBO released updated demographic projections covering 2025 through 2055, and the findings are even more sobering. The tipping point-when deaths exceed births-is now expected to arrive in 2031, two years earlier than previously estimated. This shift is driven by even slower net immigration growth and a modest downward revision to an already record-low fertility rate.
As a result, the CBO now projects the U.S. population will grow from roughly 350 million today to 367 million by 2055. That's 4.5 million fewer people than previously expected by 2035, and 5.4 million fewer by 2055. These revisions underscore the growing demographic pressures that could have profound implications for the economy, labor markets, and fiscal policy in the years ahead.
For the restaurant industry, workforce challenges are poised to remain a structural issue. With a more constrained labor supply, wage growth is likely to stay firm, prompting operators to continue investing in technology and operational improvements to boost productivity and reduce dependence on labor.
At the same time, slower population growth will weigh on long-term consumer demand-from restaurant foot traffic to broader retail development. As the population ages, shifting demographics will reshape consumption habits, influencing everything from menu offerings to dining formats.
From a policy standpoint, these demographic trends will place increasing pressure on public finances. Rising costs for healthcare and entitlement programs will coincide with a shrinking base of working-age taxpayers, creating long-term fiscal challenges that could complicate budgetary planning and sustainability.
In that analysis, we cited projections from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released in January, which forecasted that deaths would begin to outpace births by 2033, meaning immigration would become the sole driver of population growth from that point forward. Put simply, without immigration, the U.S. population would begin to decline starting in 2033.
This week, the CBO released updated demographic projections covering 2025 through 2055, and the findings are even more sobering. The tipping point-when deaths exceed births-is now expected to arrive in 2031, two years earlier than previously estimated. This shift is driven by even slower net immigration growth and a modest downward revision to an already record-low fertility rate.
As a result, the CBO now projects the U.S. population will grow from roughly 350 million today to 367 million by 2055. That's 4.5 million fewer people than previously expected by 2035, and 5.4 million fewer by 2055. These revisions underscore the growing demographic pressures that could have profound implications for the economy, labor markets, and fiscal policy in the years ahead.
For the restaurant industry, workforce challenges are poised to remain a structural issue. With a more constrained labor supply, wage growth is likely to stay firm, prompting operators to continue investing in technology and operational improvements to boost productivity and reduce dependence on labor.
At the same time, slower population growth will weigh on long-term consumer demand-from restaurant foot traffic to broader retail development. As the population ages, shifting demographics will reshape consumption habits, influencing everything from menu offerings to dining formats.
From a policy standpoint, these demographic trends will place increasing pressure on public finances. Rising costs for healthcare and entitlement programs will coincide with a shrinking base of working-age taxpayers, creating long-term fiscal challenges that could complicate budgetary planning and sustainability.
National Restaurant Association of America published this content on September 11, 2025, and is solely responsible for the information contained herein. Distributed via Public Technologies (PUBT), unedited and unaltered, on September 11, 2025 at 16:44 UTC. If you believe the information included in the content is inaccurate or outdated and requires editing or removal, please contact us at [email protected]