IRC warns of “food security timebomb” as Hormuz crisis threatens to outstrip Ukraine shock; Window to avert worsening global hunger rapidly closing

New York, NY, April 1, 2026 - The International Rescue Committee (IRC) is warning today that the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz could pose an exponentially greater threat to global food security than the 2022 Ukraine food shock, with a rapidly narrowing window to prevent a sharp rise in world hunger by June.

The 2022 Ukraine food shock-driven by the disruption of wheat exports through key Black Sea corridors-sent global food prices soaring and pushed hunger to record levels within weeks. The IRC now warns that the current crisis risks far broader and more severe impacts. Unlike Ukraine, which primarily disrupted one major commodity-wheat-through a single corridor, the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz is simultaneously constraining fuel, fertilizer, liquified natural gas, and cooking gas supplies, as well as the shipping lanes that carry medicines, therapeutic foods, and pharmaceuticals into crisis zones and to humanitarian operations worldwide.

"The war in Iran has unleashed a triple emergency: a surge in humanitarian need, a global economic shock, and a system already stretched to breaking point by more than 60 simultaneous conflicts," said David Miliband, President and CEO of the IRC, while visiting the IRC's response in Lebanon.

"Now millions of people-including those I met today in Lebanon-are living its consequences on the ground. The IRC is warning today of a ticking food security timebomb: if the Ukraine shock drove hunger to record highs within weeks, what is now unfolding threatens to be exponentially worse. The window to avert a massive global hunger crisis is rapidly closing.

"This week, the UN Secretary-General established a dedicated task force-drawing on the model of the Black Sea Grain Initiative-to develop mechanisms to facilitate fertilizer trade and humanitarian access through the Strait of Hormuz. The IRC welcomes this step but warns it won't be enough on its own. The IRC calls for an immediate cessation of hostilities; for all parties to safeguard humanitarian access across affected airspace and maritime routes; and for governments to provide flexible and predictable funding to ensure aid organizations can respond to rising costs without cutting life-saving programs. Without urgent action, the world risks a rapid and avoidable surge in hunger in the months ahead."

The Strait of Hormuz facilitates an estimated 30% of global fertilizer trade. Critical planting decisions in regions such as East Africa and South Asia will be made within the next four to six weeks-and fertilizer not applied during this window cannot be replaced later in the season. The consequences of these shortages will begin to surface during the pre-harvest "lean" season around June, with hunger indicators-rising food prices, fewer meals, and increasing malnutrition- expected in the months shortly after.

Risks could intensify further if disruption spreads to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a key Red Sea shipping route. Further escalation in the region could force vessels to reroute or halt, compounding delays to food, fuel, and humanitarian supplies. The impact will hit already fragile countries hardest. Sudan imports more than half of its fertilizer from the Gulf. Kenya sources 40% of its fertilizer and 90% of its wheat from the same region, while serving as a key re-export hub for Ethiopia, South Sudan, and Uganda. Somalia, Bangladesh, and Jordan face comparable exposure. For communities already experiencing IPC Phase 3 ("Crisis") or higher- where families are often already skipping meals or selling essential assets to survive- this is not a future risk; it is a rapidly unfolding food security
timebomb.

This crisis is hitting a global food system already under extreme strain. Nearly 320 million people are acutely food insecure worldwide-double the number in 2019. The IRC is already seeing immediate operational impacts: in Somalia, ready-to-use therapeutic food and other critical nutrition supplies remain stranded mid-route, unable to reach populations facing catastrophic need.