Minister Khumbudzo Ntshavheni on release of National Security Strategy And National Intelligence Estimates (2019 – 2024)

Today marks a historic milestone in our democratic journey, one which speaks directly to the principles of national security, constitutional accountability, transparency, and national resilience as enshrined in our Section 198 of the Constitution. In line with the commitment I made during the 2024 and today's Budget Vote Debates, and in direct response to the recommendations of the 2018 High-Level Review Panel on the State Security Agency, I am here to formally release the public versions of the National Security Strategy (NSS) 2024 - 2029. National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) 2019-2024 and its the National Intelligence Priorities (NIPs). As explained during the Budget Debate, national security considerations dictate that we cannot release the current version of NIE and NIPs. Hence, we are publishing the NIE covering the period of the sixth Administration.

This is the first time in the history of the Republic of South Africa that such instruments of national intelligence are being released in a manner that is both transparent and structured, while maintaining the required integrity for national security. It is not only a profound step forward, but a clear paradigm shift in how the intelligence community relates to the state, to Parliament, and to the people.

The National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) 2019-2024 provides a consolidated, evidence-based assessment of the strategic threats, risks, and opportunities facing our nation. It is the product of collaborative inputs from across the national intelligence community under the tutelage of the National Intelligence Coordinating Committee (NICOC) as per the provisions of the National Strategic Act 1994 (Act 39 of 1994), and other strategic partners. It seeks to ensure that our national response to complex security issues, from illegal migration, espionage, cyber threats and transnational organised crime to climate security as well as domestic instability amongst others, is informed, proactive, and coordinated.

The NIE is directly aligned with our national planning instruments and consist of five themes namely:

• Threats to the economy,
• Territorial integrity,
• Authority of the state,
• Threats to the wellbeing of South Africans, as well as
• Threats emanating from the foreign or global terrain.

The 2019-2024 National Intelligence Priorities (NIPs) were fully integrated with the priorities of the Medium-Term Strategic Framework (MTSF), as follows:

Domestic Intelligence Priorities

• Investigate threats to South Africa's sovereign economic and business capacity and capabilities emanating from both domestic and foreign actors and events.
• Improve intelligence capacity to counter border-based and migration threats in support of the BMA.
• Advise on vetting and forewarn about the appointment of foreign nationals at organs of State in strategic sectors where they have access to sensitive and classified information. This should be pursued in line with section 22 of the Constitution.
• Identify and investigate the activities of FISs pertaining to South Africa's economic and business interests, both domestic and abroad.
• Bolster cyber forensic capability to effectively address and regulate online technologies and crypto-currencies that are exploited to facilitate IFFs.
• Adjust South Africa's cybersecurity posture to accommodate counter-intelligence and protective security at its core.
• Conduct vulnerability assessments and vetting at SOEs.
• Prioritise security appraisals and advice at critical infrastructure.
• Address cybersecurity vulnerabilities at organs of State including in procurement, supply chain management and reliance on foreign-based companies within national security domains.
• Investigate activities related to terror financing that are characterised by vulnerabilities in the border security environment, exploitation of the cash economy, abuse of remittances, as well as the challenges presented by the new financial technologies.
• Investigate and mitigate organised or syndicated criminal activities, including drug smuggling as well as human smuggling and trafficking.
• Investigate and mitigate the cross-border smuggling of narcotics and precursor chemicals for narcotics.

Foreign Intelligence Priorities

• Establish and determine negative forces that seek to undermine and sabotage South Africa's chairship of the African Union and also identify opportunities for country to boost her progressive overtures in the continent.
• Ensure and develop a system that would enhance and protect the country's economic position and interest in the continent through the provisions of the African Continental Free Trade Agreement.
• Consolidate efforts to stabilise SADC region to advance the national interest and further enhance early warning mechanisms to manage risks to political, security, and economic stability in partnership with SADC member states.
• Enhance coordination of South Africa's response and engagements in the United Nations Security Council throughout 2020 and continue to lobby for the reform of the UNSC.
• Develop a strategy and implement programmes aims at countering hostile forces that seek to undermine the country's interest in the continent and further identify foreign powers in South Africa and the continent that are pro or against our interest. Further, develop legislation framework to deal espionage activities.
• Strengthen the State's capacity to detect and counter precursors of terrorism.
• Develop a strategy to neutralise hostile activities of xxxxxxxx nationals in South Africa and then expedite efforts to resolve diplomatic tensions between the two countries.

National Security Strategy
The National Security Strategy (NSS) which was endorsed by the Cabinet on 13 March 2024 equally brings cohesion to our national security efforts. It outlines a whole-of-government, and with its publication, the whole-of-society approach to national security, by embedding intelligence at the core of strategic foresight, resilience-building, and crisis prevention. The NSS is grounded in the principle that national security is inseparable from human security, economic stability, democratic governance, social justice and above all national interest. There are eight critical pillars contained in the NSS, namely:

Pillar 1: Protection of South Africans or public security (Well-being of South Africans)

The objectives of this pillar is to ensure that the state:

• Protects the public and ensure its well-being.
• Protects the constitutional order of the Republic of South Africa (RSA).
• Ensure its sovereignty, independence, and its territorial integrity by protecting fundamental human and civil rights and freedoms.
• Strengthen civil peace and harmony.
• Ensure political and social stability in society.
• Improve the mechanisms of interaction between state and civil society.
• Strengthen safety and security.
• Eradicate corruption.
• Protect citizens and all forms of property.
• Protect the rights and freedoms of citizens.
• Eradicate poverty, inequality, unemployment and racism by promoting social cohesion.

Pillar 2: Protection of the territorial integrity of the republic
This pillar is aimed at ensuring that the goal of defending the country are being achieved through the implementation of modern and funded defence review and updated defence policy through strategic deterrence and the prevention of military conflicts; the improvement of the military organisation of the state; the forms of use and methods of action of the armed forces of the RSA and increased mobilisation readiness.

Pillar 3: Protection and projection of our sovereignty
This pillar will ensure that the foreign policy of the RSA creates favourable conditions for sustainable socio-economic development of the country, strengthens national security interests abroad, strengthens the position of the RSA on matters of national interest and national security by ensuring that the country's position is coherent and redlines are understood.

Pillar 4: Protection of the economy or economic security
This pillar of the NNS will ensure that the economic security of the RSA is strengthened, the economic sovereignty of the country is protected and that the competitiveness of the South African economy is increased as well as its resistance to external and internal threats. It is further aimed at creating conditions for economic growth at the rate of which will be at par to global growth or higher.

Pillar 5: Protection of cyberspace and the environment
This pillar aims at strengthening the sovereignty of the RSA in the information space through enhancing risk awareness; encourage the country stakeholders to assume responsibility for their cybersecurity; and build the necessary capabilities.

Pillar 6: Protection and promotion of technology and innovation
This pillar is aimed at ensuring that the RSA's scientific and technological development is independent and competitive. It further ensures that there is enough investment into research and development capacity and that the country's intellectual property is protected.

Pillar 7: Protection of the environment and natural resources or environmental security
This pillar will ensure the environmental security of the RSA and the rational use of natural resources. It will further ensure the quality of the environment necessary for favourable human life, conservation and restoration of the natural environment, balanced use of natural resources, and the mitigation of the negative effects of climate change.

Pillar 8: Protection of South Africa's culture and heritage (cultural security)
This pillar will ensure the strengthening of the cultural sovereignty of South Africa and preserve its unified cultural space and heritage through the protection of historical truth, the preservation of historical memory, continuity in the development of the country and its historically established unity, and opposition to the falsification of history. This pillar is further aimed at building social cohesion, national identity and patriotism.

We must recall the warnings of the 2018 High-Level Review Panel, that a lack of policy coherence, political accountability, and institutional reform within the intelligence community posed a threat to national security itself. In implementing the Panel's recommendations,

The release of the NIE, NIPs, and NSS represents not only compliance with that directive but a deliberate act of democratic renewal. It is our commitment to building a modern, ethical, and professional intelligence capability, guided by law, oversight, and strategic foresight. This is part of our commitment to transform the sector to serve the Constitution, not partisan interests.

Let me be clear, this is not the end of a process. It is the beginning of a new, progressive chapter in how intelligence functions in the service of the South African people. We do so in a world of rapidly evolving threats, hybrid warfare, misinformation, climate-induced instability, and shifting geopolitical dynamics. Our national security response must be anticipatory, inclusive, and adaptive.

In conclusion, I want to thank the men and women of our national intelligence community, who have worked with discipline, humility, and excellence to bring this moment to fruition. I also extend appreciation to Parliament for holding us accountable, and to the people of South Africa, for whom this transformation is being undertaken.

Let history reflect that we chose transparency over secrecy, service over self-interest, and reform over inertia.

Let us now work together to protect and advance our democratic gains through intelligence that is principled, professional, and people-centred.

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