Analysis projects state increases in uninsured rate following passage of budget reconciliation bill

A KFF analysis published Aug. 20 provides a state-by-state allocation of Congressional Budget Office estimates that 10 million people could be uninsured by 2034 following the passage of the budget reconciliation bill. KFF said the total could be higher, as CBO estimates do not account for potential impacts following the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services' 2025 Marketplace Integrity and Affordability final rule issued in June.

The analysis provides a state map of estimates of the uninsured rate under current law following passage of the budget reconciliation bill, as well as a map of estimates combining impacts of the bill and the expiration of the enhanced premium tax credits, currently set to expire this year. Under current law, the uninsured rate could increase by 3% or more in 20 states. Under the combined effects of the bill and expiration of the tax credits, three states could experience uninsured rate increases of at least 5%, while 34 states and Washington, D.C. could experience increases of 3% or more.