Air pollution simulation reinforces public health data on the dangers of airborne toxins

Hot summer days often lead to poor air quality. High temperatures and high air pressure systems cause pollutant buildups, creating ground-level ozone that can lead to a variety of health issues. And as climate change increases summer temperatures around the globe, being able to track and predict air quality is becoming a public health priority.

B.H. Baek, research associate professor in George Mason University's Center for Satellite and Earth Science Research in the College of Science, is developing air quality and emissions modeling systems to help track and predict local and regional air pollutants and their adverse human health impacts.

Benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylenes-collectively known as BTEX-are common air pollutants, originating from various industrial and manufacturing processes, vehicle emissions, and natural sources such as forest fires. This suite of toxic air contaminants is particularly prevalent in urban environments, as well as near industrial facilities such as power plants and factories. Short- and long-term exposure to BTEX compounds can cause a variety of health issues, including elevated risks of cancer, respiratory diseases, neurological effects, and adverse birth outcomes.

Baek is developing high-resolution, year-long ambient concentration fields for the Louisville, Kentucky, region. This project expands on his previous work developing an air pollution simulation model for the U.S. Gulf Region, home to more than 120 petroleum refineries and subsequently elevated BTEX and styrene emissions.

"We know where the power plants and refineries that produce these emissions are located. We have a map of where the people are driving and living. And with that data, we generate this map of our concentration throughout the region based on the observation data, the estimated emission sources that we have, and the meteorologist data," Baek explained.

Cross-referenced with hospitalization data and blood samples from residents of the Gulf region from 2011 to 2016, the model provided a more complete picture of both exposure to and the impacts of styrene and BTEX on public health outcomes.

Unlike other highly contaminated areas Baek has worked in, historic monitoring of BTEX in Louisville is much more limited. "It's a smaller city surrounded by trees, so despite the BTEX contamination, public health has not been a major issue," said Baek. "It has not been monitored to the same extent."

Baek and his team will use their toxic simulation data to help fill in the gaps. Called "data fusion," the model will combine observational data from real-time measurements via a novel mobile app-developed by Professor Yue Cheng from Texas A&M University-with emissions data collected from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).

"The main benefit is public health," said Baek. "Epidemiologists need more accurate data for them to link to their studies of the health effects of air toxin exposure. Now, the model can be expanded for the future to come."

Baek also notes how this model could support air-quality tracking and predictions as climate change progresses. "We'll be able to see how climate change will impact the regional scale," he said.

Baek is already using the simulation to help fill the gaps in the EPA's National Emissions Inventory; this data will be publicly available once published.

"We developed this model to support the EPA's work in regulating manufacturers," said Baek. As the model continues to expand and develop over time with projects like these, it will help state and federal leaders make evidence-based decisions and inform advocacy around emissions regulations.

"George Mason is at the forefront of toxic air pollution work," said Baek.

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