Lecture by Minister Elina Valtonen at the IISS in Singapore

Lecture by Minister Elina Valtonen at the IISS in Singapore

As part of the lecture series "Raffles lecture" at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) in Singapore Minister Elina Valtonen delivered the following speech on 28th October 2025.

Lecture by Minister Elina Valtonen at the IISS in Singapore

Resilience the Finnish Way - Small States in a Turbulent World

Esteemed guests, ladies and gentlemen,

Napoleon Bonaparte famously said:

"If you know a country's geography, you can understand and predict its foreign policy."

Let me therefore begin by explaining Finland's geography.

Finland is a small Nordic country of just five and a half million people, located in the northeastern corner of Europe. We share a 1,340-kilometre border with Russia.

A little over a century ago, Finland gained its independence from imperial Russia. For centuries before that, the Finnish people had been part of Sweden. Our modern history is marked by conflict and resilience. During the Second World War, Finland was invaded by the Soviet Union, and as a result, we lost more than ten percent of our territory.

Today Finland stands as an integral part of the international community - a goal we have pursued since independence.

It was only after the death of Joseph Stalin that Finland was able to join the United Nations - a significant step in asserting our place in the international community. Following the collapse of the Soviet Union in the 1990s, Finland joined the European Union.

When the Cold War came to an end, there was much talk about the so-called "end of history." But Finland did not allow itself to be lulled into complacency. Even in those optimistic times, we maintained full conscription and invested in modern defence capabilities, including the purchase of new American Hornet fighter jets.

These were not merely technical military decisions - they were strategic choices to ensure that we would have the means to safeguard our independence and sovereignty.

More recently, Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine dramatically altered the European security landscape. This stark reality compelled Finland to take yet another historic step: joining NATO, to safeguard our security and contribute to collective defence and deterrence.

In Finland, we have never had the luxury of letting down our guard.

Esteemed guests,

Our security has never been built on military preparedness alone. In addition to investing in our security, we have made serious and sustained investments in our people. Education, equality of opportunity, individual freedom, trust in institutions, and strong democratic processes have been the cornerstones of our resilience.

In today's international environment - defined by renewed great-power rivalry - small countries like Finland or Singapore cannot hope to compete through power alone. Much like the Finnish security environment, there is an increased level of unpredictability and uncertainty here in Southeast Asia. Tensions in the South China Sea and the ongoing conflict in Myanmar continue to cast shadows across the region.

Despite the thousands of kilometres that separate Finland and Singapore, our nations are not as distant in spirit as the map might suggest.

We are both small countries that have learned to thrive through the strength of our people. At the heart of both our societies lies a deep understanding: it is only when individuals are free to shape their own futures that nations can truly prosper.

For countries like ours, our most valuable asset lies not beneath our feet, but between our ears. It is the curiosity to ask bold questions, the innovation to find new solutions, and the determination to build something better that drive our progress.

In Finland, we have long believed that when everyone is given equal opportunities - regardless of their background - the entire nation benefits. Equal access to education, healthcare, and the labour market provides the foundation for becoming the happiest country in the world. Equal opportunities go hand in hand with good governance and trust. In the 2024 Corruption Perceptions Index, Finland ranked second globally and Singapore third.

Equal opportunity does not only foster economic growth - it also forms the bedrock of our national security. Year after year, surveys show that the Finnish people remain committed to the defence of our country - consistently ranking among the highest in Europe in their willingness to defend their homeland, with 78 percent expressing readiness to do so. I believe this is because we understand the value of freedom.

It is this same understanding that explains why the Finnish people have been so united and steadfast in our support for Ukraine. Ukrainians on the battlefield are fighting not just for their territory, but for the values we hold most dear: freedom, democracy, and the rule of international law.

Both Finland and Singapore share a deep and enduring commitment to multilateralism and the rules-based international order. As independent and resilient nations - sometimes even a little stubborn - we consistently defend global cooperation and stability.

For small states, multilateralism is not a luxury but a necessity. Upholding international law is a strategic imperative. In the end, peaceful cooperation benefits all of us - including those who seek to challenge it.

Esteemed guests,

Small states' economies are typically deeply dependent on international trade, requiring openness and adaptability. However, we have seen new fault lines emerging in both trade and security, which have only served to underline the importance of free trade.

Both Finland and Singapore have embraced resilience and diversification as strategic tools for small states. Finland's investments in clean energy, research, and digital governance - and Singapore's focus on water security, smart cities, and green infrastructure - are not just domestic priorities. They are part of a broader effort to enhance national preparedness, reduce dependencies, and strengthen global influence.

Dear friends,

As a software engineer, I cannot let technological development go unmentioned. Earlier in my speech, I said that our greatest asset lies between our ears - the human mind. But even as we gather here today, we know that AI is accomplishing things that, just a few years ago, we could only dream of human minds achieving.

This is not science fiction; it is our new reality.

AI will transform societies - not in the distant future, but now - and in ways we cannot yet fully grasp. From healthcare diagnostics and autonomous transport to education solutions, AI presents tremendous opportunities.

But opportunity always walks hand in hand with responsibility. In Finland, we have long believed in the power of innovation, but we also believe in transparency, education, and inclusiveness.

I commend Singapore's National AI Strategy, which emphasizes the development of trusted, human-centric AI and its responsible integration across society and the economy. It serves as a model of how innovation, guided by ethical principles and a focus on human well-being, can strengthen both national resilience and global leadership.

It is proof that it is not the size of a country, but rather the courage to look into the future, that defines how we build our resilience. We have much to learn from Singapore.

In the future human intelligence becomes increasingly difficult - if not impossible - to separate from artificial intelligence.

We must ensure that our future will not be written by code alone. As AI grows in use and sophistication, not only opportunities but also risks will multiply.

Checks and balances and the division of power are key building blocks of a free society. These must be upheld - both nationally and globally - to foster trust and to prevent ultimate power from concentrating in the hands of malign actors or machines.

Even though the international community has struggled to enforce the UN Charter in recent years, with some countries blatantly violating principles of territorial integrity and human rights, the world has clearly been a better and more peaceful place with the rules in place than without them. These rules do not need to be reinvented for AI - they need to be enforced.

How? Through global cooperation and the empowerment of individuals.

Napoleon Bonaparte lived in an age where the idea of AI would have seemed like complete sorcery. Yet his words have stood the test of time:

"If you know a country's geography, you can understand and predict its foreign policy."

To that, I offer a modern addition:

If a country embraces technological change head-on, it not only understands the world - it has the tools to shape it. In doing so, it strengthens its influence in a world where technology and AI, not just geography, determine one's position.

Together, Finland and Singapore show that even small nations can have a great impact when they combine resilience, innovation, and a steadfast commitment to human dignity and global cooperation. Our shared belief in freedom, education, and technology as forces for good will guide us as we shape a future that is not defined by size or power, but by vision and purpose.