Second quarter economic data a mixed bag

Second quarter economic data a mixed bag

SHREVEPORT - When LSUS economist Douglas White scatters all the economic data from the Center for Business and Economic Research's second quarter report on the table to try and get a glimpse of the overall economy, there is one word that comes to mind.

Uncertainty.

"I could probably cherry pick the data and tell a positive story or a story that would cast the economy in decline," White said. "But this is the first time that we've done the dashboard where I've been a little concerned."

The most concerning element - inflation.

The annual inflation rate has grown between 3.3-4.2 percent in each month from March to June, much higher than the Federal Reserve's two percent target.

The war in Iran, which has choked off much of the 20 percent of crude oil that transited the Strait of Hormuz before the conflict, is the biggest culprit.

But ongoing trade wars and increasing tariffs are partly to blame for 2.6-2.8 percent rise in core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices.

"June is probably the first month where we saw the full effect of the Iran war in the economic data," White said. "Higher oil prices push gasoline prices up, and higher gas prices are eventually transmitted through the entire economy because basically everything you buy is shipped."

Gas prices flirted with $4.00 per gallon in Shreveport at its peak in May, but they've fallen and further stabilized with the early July average around $3.38.

But compared with prices around $2.50 in July of 2025, households have had to adjust their budgets.

Higher overall inflation means people's dollars aren't buying as much, and wage increases for many aren't keeping pace with inflation.

That's if someone has a job -- the unemployment rate is at its highest in a year at 4.7 percent in the Shreveport-Bossier Metro Statistical Area.

"Historically, we would have said those (unemployment rates) are great numbers, but compared to what it's been, those aren't great numbers," White said. "So the question is, are we going back to what used to be normal (around five percent), or is closer to four percent the new normal?"

Housing prices falling in Shreveport-Bossier

Housing prices have steadily fallen in 2026, and the June median listing price of $236,875 for Shreveport Bossier is more than nine percent lower than one year ago.

Caddo Parish has experienced double-digit annual price decreases for three months in a row, down 11.7 percent from last year at $189,900.

"We see that high inflation rates and high mortgage rates are finally showing up in the housing data," White said.

Mortgage rates averaged 6.41 percent in the second quarter, down from the peak of more than 7 percent in 2024 but higher than the historically low rates in and around the COVID-19 pandemic.

People are still flying and gambling

Higher inflation rates and energy prices haven't halted discretionary activity across the board as Shreveport Regional Airport and local casinos are still chugging along.

While the airport's numbers might be slightly below the record 2025 pace, people flying out of and into Shreveport remain strong.

That sentiment carries over into the casino market as second-quarter revenue is up 10 percent overall.

"Strong showings at both the airport and in the casinos says that at least some people still have disposable income to spend," White said. "Building permit data is up, so people are investing in building new units.

"(Shreveport) tax collections are up 1.3 percent through the first two quarters, which is below inflation and not super strong, but also not terrible."