Turkey Farm Challenges Could Affect Thanksgiving Prices

Shoppers preparing for upcoming fall holidays, including Thanksgiving, should brace for higher turkey prices this year. New analysis from the American Farm Bureau Federation's Market Intel series says economic factors as well as disease challenges have driven wholesale turkey prices up about 40%. While prices may be higher, the analysis shows there will be enough birds to meet consumer demand and Thanksgiving specials are likely to be offered by retailers.

Poultry farmers are battling a combination of diseases impacting the industry. This includes Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) which has affected more than 18 million turkeys since 2022, as well as Avian Metapneumovirus (AMPV). While detections of HPAI slowed during warmer summer months, fall waterfowl migration and cooler temperatures have led to detections across the upper Midwest, impacting about 600,000 turkeys in the month of September.

"It's important to remember prices are still 32% lower than just three years ago," writes AFBF Economist Bernt Nelson. "Diseases such as HPAI and AMPV are devastating flocks. Meanwhile, poultry farmers also grapple with the broader economic challenges impacting the agricultural economy. These production challenges shouldn't have any impact on consumers' ability to get turkey, but they may translate to higher retail prices this holiday season."

Over the last three decades, U.S. turkey production has steadily declined. Demand has only ticked down slightly, leading to tighter supplies and increased prices paid to farmers.

AFBF President Zippy Duvall said, "Poultry farmers have demonstrated their resiliency in facing down challenges, but rising supply costs, trade disputes and avian illnesses have all taken their toll. Despite that, poultry remains one of the most affordable sources of protein and you can bet turkey farmers are ensuring birds will be available for this year's Thanksgiving dinner."

Turkey is just one staple of the traditional Thanksgiving feast. Farm Bureau's annual Thanksgiving dinner survey tracks prices for a basket of favorites to give shoppers a snapshot of what they can expect to pay for a holiday meal. This year's Thanksgiving survey will be released on Nov. 19.

Read the Market Intel here.

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