Up for Grabs: 5-Way Tie in the Race for Governor

SAN FRANCISCO, February 25, 2026-Five candidates for governor are in a virtual tie heading into the primary this June. Most likely voters say candidate positions on affordability issues will be very important in determining their vote. Amid concerns about the state budget, solid majorities of likely voters are in favor of raising taxes on the wealthiest Californians. Democrats outpace other partisan groups in their enthusiasm for voting in congressional elections this year. ICE faces overwhelming disapproval, with most Californians saying the agency's actions have made communities less safe. These are among the key findings from a statewide survey released today by the Public Policy Institute of California.

Five gubernatorial candidates find themselves in a statistical dead heat among likely voters: Republican Steve Hilton (14%), Democrat Katie Porter (13%), Republican Chad Bianco (12%), Democrat Eric Swalwell (11%), and Democrat Tom Steyer (10%). Other declared candidates polled at 5 percent or less; 10 percent of likely voters are undecided. How will voters make their choices come June? Most voters believe a candidate's stand on the issues (66%) is more important than their character (17%), experience (11%), or political party (6%). And nearly all voters (96%) say that a candidate's position on issues related to affordability and cost of living is very (61%) or somewhat (35%) important in determining their vote. Currently, 61 percent of voters are satisfied with their choices for governor, although independents (45%) are decidedly less satisfied than are Democrats (69%) and Republicans (64%). An overwhelming share of voters (72%) would be interested in hearing from candidates in debates or town-hall meetings.

"Three months out from the June primary, the top two slots in the gubernatorial race are up for grabs," said Mark Baldassare, PPIC Statewide Survey director and Miller Chair in Public Policy. "Voters feel hammered by cost-of-living realities, so affordability will be a defining issue for them."

Indeed, when asked about the most important issue for the governor and legislature to work on this year, voters are far more likely to name cost of living, the economy, or inflation than any other issue. And it's personal: 67 percent of voters say their income is not keeping up with inflation. Nearly one in three (31%) are concerned about having enough money to pay their rent or mortgage. And 55 percent expect health care costs for them and their family to become less affordable in the next year.

More key findings:

• Concerns about state budget and tax burden; support for wealth tax. Californians' fiscal angst is also reflected in their attitudes about the state budget and taxes. Nearly all Californians (91% adults, 92% likely voters) say the state budget situation is at least somewhat of a problem. Still, majorities of adults and likely voters (62% each) support Governor Newsom's budget proposal. Interestingly, while Californians favor using state funds to offset federal cuts to health and social service programs (55% adults, 59% likely voters), they oppose using state funds to make up for reduced federal support for electric vehicle incentives (66% adults, 64% likely voters).

  Majorities of adults and likely voters (55% each) say they would prefer to pay lower taxes and have a state government that provides fewer services. One reason? Californians are feeling decidedly tax burdened: strong majorities (63% adults, 61% likely voters) think our present state and local tax system is not fair. Seven in ten adults and likely voters feel that they pay much more (33% each) or somewhat more (36% each) than they should in state and local taxes. This may explain why an overwhelming majority of likely voters (77%) would prefer to make decisions about spending and taxes at the ballot box, rather than leaving decisions up to the governor and legislature (22%).

  In a preview of the upcoming fight over the wealth tax for billionaires, six in ten adults and likely voters (61% each) say they favor raising state taxes paid by the wealthiest Californians to help balance the state budget. "It's a case of 'tax thee, not me,'" Baldassare said.

• Democrats hold enthusiasm edge in House races. Following last November's redistricting vote and subsequent green light by the US Supreme Court, nearly four in ten voters (38%) say they are extremely or very enthusiastic about voting for Congress this year. Democrats (51%) are 20 points more likely than Republicans (31%) to say they are extremely or very enthusiastic about voting. Currently, likely voters choose the Democratic candidate over the Republican candidate in their own House race by a wide margin (62% to 36%). A majority of likely voters (57%) say the country will be better off if the Democrats win control of Congress in November.

  "At the moment, Democrats have an enthusiasm edge when it comes to House races," Baldassare said. "Just like at the state level, affordability concerns will be decisive." A majority of likely voters (56%) say their House candidate's positions on cost-of-living issues will be very important in determining their vote.

  Low marks for ICE, federal leaders. In the wake of controversial operations in cities across the nation, solid majorities of Californians (61% adults and likely voters) say actions taken by the US Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency have made those communities less safe. This view holds across political, demographic, and regional groups, with the exception of Republicans, who say ICE operations have made those communities safer (57%). Overall, overwhelming majorities (77% adults, 73% likely voters) disapprove of the job ICE is doing. Solid majorities (60% adults, 61% likely voters) also say they approve of recent protests against ICE actions. Republicans (74%) overwhelmingly disapprove of anti-ICE protests.

  Californians view political extremism or threats to democracy (37% adults, 46% likely voters) as the most important issue facing the US today, followed by jobs and the economy (18% adults, 15% likely voters) and immigration (14% adults, 12% likely voters). Approval ratings for President Trump and Congress remain low: 25 percent of Californians and 30 percent of likely voters approve of the way President Trump is handling his job; even fewer approve of the US Congress (18% adults, 19% likely voters).

  "These approval ratings are dismal and the expectations low," Baldassare said. Few Californians (24% adults, 28% likely voters) believe the president and Congress will be able to work together to accomplish a lot this year.

  Views of state officials are rosier: majorities of adults (51%) and likely voters (52%) approve of the way Governor Newsom is handling his job, and just under half (46% adults, 49% likely voters) approve of the job the state legislature is doing.

About the Survey

The Californians and Their Government survey is supported with funding from the Arjay R. and Frances F. Miller Foundation.

The findings are based on responses from 1,657 California adult residents. The sampling error is ±3.1 percent at the 95 percent confidence level for the total unweighted sample and ±3.9 percent for the 1,049 likely voters. Interviewing took place from February 3-11, 2026. For more information, please see the methodology section in the full survey report.

Mark Baldassare is statewide survey director at PPIC, where he holds the Arjay and Frances Fearing Miller Chair in Public Policy. He is founder of the PPIC Statewide Survey, which he has directed since 1998.

The Public Policy Institute of California is dedicated to informing and improving public policy in California through independent, objective, nonpartisan research. We are a public charity. We do not take or support positions on any ballot measure or on any local, state, or federal legislation, nor do we endorse, support, or oppose any political parties or candidates for public office. Research publications reflect the views of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of our funders or of the staff, officers, advisory councils, or board of directors of the Public Policy Institute of California.

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