Wildfire Risk to Utility Infrastructure Focus of Fellowship Study

Bone-dry conditions fueled a stubborn brush fire that burned approximately 13 acres of woodlands in Exeter, N.H., last fall, but the potential for wildfires on a much larger scale has led to research by a graduate student who recently studied the risk that climate change, specifically wildfires, poses to Unitil's infrastructure.

Isioma Nwayor, a climate scientist pursuing a doctorate in geography at the Indiana University Bloomington, participated in a 10-week sustainability fellowship program through the University of New Hampshire's Sustainability Institute this summer and recently completed her work aimed at helping Unitil better understand and mitigate the impact of climate change on its operations. The fellowship focused on assessing wildfire risk using advanced climate modeling techniques, Geographic Information System (GIS) data, and other methods.

The study comes as New England has seen an increase in drought conditions in recent years, and despite a wet spring, much of the region is now experiencing abnormally dry conditions or moderate drought with some areas reporting severe drought.

Unitil, a provider of electricity and natural gas to customers in New England, has hosted a sustainability fellow for the past six years. The UNH program provides learning opportunities for undergraduate, graduate, and recent graduate students from UNH and other universities to work on transformative sustainability projects with municipal, educational, corporate, and non-profit partners.

In previous years, fellows have analyzed the risks sea level rise, temperature, and other climate hazards pose to Unitil's system.

"This vital research is part of a broader multi-year effort that takes a closer look at the physical effects of changing climate conditions so we can better understand the risks and properly plan for any future impacts on the company's critical energy delivery assets like poles, wires and other equipment, some of which pass through wooded areas," said Unitil External Affairs Director Alec O'Meara. "We're fortunate to have this sustainability fellowship program available and we appreciate Isioma's work on this critical project, which not only gave her new insight into utility operations and climate risk assessment, but also offered an opportunity to contribute to climate resilience for the communities we serve."

Nwayor, who spent much of her life in Nigeria and has personal experience with drought, has focused her studies on different aspects of extreme weather, but never had a chance to perform a comprehensive analysis of wildfire impacts until now.

"I've always been interested in wildfires. I thought this was a good opportunity because as a climate scientist I want to be well rounded. I know I have experience with studying extreme weather events, but never worked on wildfire and this was something that was very close to what I was doing at the moment," she said.

Nwayor worked closely with a team of mentors from Unitil, which included George Anderson, Sustainability Project Manager; Sara Sankowich, Director of Sustainability & Shared Services; Jackelyn Harris, Sustainability Impact Analyst; and Charlie Kickham, GIS Manager.

Unlike smaller brush fires that New England typically experiences during dry conditions, Nwayor's research focused on wildfires that would impact hundreds of acres.

As part of her work, Nwayor looked at historical data to assess the risk of wildfires around Unitil's facilities, which showed that the likelihood of the utility's service territory experiencing a wildfire was low, with the chance of such an event occurring in any given year around 0.1%.

However, Nwayor found that the impact on infrastructure and buildings around Unitil's facilities could be extreme in the event of a large-scale wildfire. Through her research, she learned that while the entire U.S. could be at increased risk for wildfires in the future, the consequence is high in the Northeast due to a densely populated built environment.

"It's very important for us to understand how wildfire would impact the communities around Unitil and the communities that Unitil provides services to. The impact would be high for buildings, and if we ever had a wildfire, the control difficulty would be high so getting the fire team or vegetation team over to the location would be very difficult. That's based on what we've seen in the past from about 1980 to 2020," she said.

Drier periods and flash droughts are contributing to an increased risk of wildfires, she said, adding that extreme rainfall events experienced in recent years produce more runoff and don't allow the water to be adequately absorbed into the ground to help keep vegetation from becoming too dry.

In addition to the data-driven analysis, Nwayor worked with Unitil's vegetation management, operations, and engineering teams to assess current practices and propose future design and mitigation strategies. The work resulted in an internal report outlining methods, key findings, and actionable recommendations, as well as a summary presentation delivered to internal stakeholders.

Recommendations included proactive steps, such as enhanced vegetation management in high impact areas where wildfire control may be more difficult; increased wildfire risk monitoring; investigating systems designed to detect an ignition; building more fire-resistant structures around Unitil's facilities; and increased collaboration with local fire, forest management and other departments to address wildfire risk.

Photo Captions:

Top Photo: Sustainability Fellowship - Isioma Nwayor, center, a Unitil fellow through the University of New Hampshire's Sustainability Institute, with her fellowship mentors. From left are Bailey Jones, UNH Fellowship Project Advisor and a 2024 Unitil fellow; Sara Sankowich, Director of Sustainability & Shared Services at Unitil; Nwayor; Jackelyn Harris, Sustainability Impact Analyst at Unitil; and George Anderson, Unitil Sustainability Project Manager.

Inline Photo: Isioma Nwayor, who participated in a sustainability fellowship program through the University of New Hampshire's Sustainability Institute, focused her work on potential impacts of wildfires on Unitil's infrastructure.