Q&A: Fragile progress in Gaza agreement

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Q&A: Fragile progress in Gaza agreement

October 28, 2025

As the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas enters a critical new phase, questions remain about the role of Middle Eastern nations in sustaining peace and shaping Gaza's future.

Brandeis University School of Business and Economics professor Nader Habibi, an expert on Middle East political economy, says regional leaders see both risk and opportunity in the current moment.

Here, he discusses shifting attitudes toward Israel, the influence of U.S. diplomacy and what to watch as the region moves into the next phase of the agreement.

How would you characterize regional attitudes toward Israel following the peace agreement?

There's a strong desire across the region to maintain the ceasefire in Gaza. Several Arab countries had been warming to Israel before October 7 in the framework of the Abraham Accords, which were U.S.-brokered agreements that normalized relations between Israel and Arab states.

The events since have made further normalization, especially for Saudi Arabia, much harder. Still, leaders see an opportunity to work with President Trump, whom they believe can help contain tensions.

The Gaza ceasefire is a meaningful step for countries seeking stability and economic growth, but it's not enough to prompt formal normalization. That would require concrete progress toward a two-state solution, which remains politically difficult for Israel in the near term.

How do regional powers view it? Will they see this process through?

The Gaza agreement has two phases. Phase 1 was the exchange of hostages, which took place; only a few bodies of Israeli hostages remain to be returned.

Phase 2 involves substantial governance reform in Gaza, specifically the disarmament and departure of Hamas and its replacement by a new government with a strong role for the Palestinian Authority, supported by the Arab world and the United States.

Many governments in the Arab world are angry with Hamas, and believe October 7 hurt the Palestinian cause more than it helped, even if they don't say that publicly. At the same time, these governments and the people in the Arab world, have strong sympathy for the Palestinian cause and are equally angry at Israel for its harsh response to the October 7 Hamas attacks.

While these nations are willing to help advance Phase 2, the broader question of a two-state solution remains unresolved. But that's beyond Phase 2.

Regional leaders are willing to work with President Trump. What are their reasons?

There are two main reasons.

First, the U.S. is the key security partner for countries like Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE. In return, they maintain strong economic ties with the U.S., which includes spending large amounts on the acquisition of advanced U.S. weapon systems and investing in the U.S. economy. They view President Trump as a transactional business-oriented leader who might be willing to pay attention to their interests in return for lucrative economic deals.

Second, they see Trump as someone willing to take bold actions. He's demonstrated leverage over both Iran and, at times, Israel. Because of America's unique role as Israel's main supporter and arms supplier, Trump's ability to exert pressure carries significant weight.

These countries want to maintain close ties with any U.S. president - but especially one they perceive as assertive and transactional, like Trump.

While many of these nations have welcomed President Trump, he's also expressed enthusiasm about doing business in the region. What effect has that had?

During visits with leaders from Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE, he's secured pledges of large investment and major economic agreements that (if realized) will create jobs and opportunities for U.S. companies.

He's very business-minded, and these leaders use economic incentives to influence his approach to the Arab-Israeli conflict. They present peace as a path to economic growth and investment opportunities for U.S. corporations. That's something Trump finds compelling.

He's said multiple times that he wants to see the Middle East become a hub for development and infrastructure investment that benefits the global economy and, above all, the United States.

What will you be watching in the coming weeks?

I'll be watching to see whether the ceasefire holds and whether all sides move into Phase 2. That will be critical.

The key question is whether Hamas is willing to leave power, or at least accept a limited or subordinate role, and allow new leadership, with regional and U.S. support, to establish a functioning government and begin Gaza's reconstruction. Another important factor is whether President Trump will maintain his interest in the Gaza peace process and is willing to use the U.S. leverage on both Israel and (friendly) Arab countries toward this goal. Many other issues, such as Ukraine or China, might divert his attention.

These factors will determine whether this fragile progress turns into something lasting.