Elections as critical infrastructure: Preparing for a climate-disrupted world

Hurricanes Helene and Milton hit the south-eastern United States in the weeks before the 2024 presidential election. Tropical Cyclone Idai struck Mozambique two weeks before voter registration began in 2019. During the final days of India's seven-phase general election in 2024, temperatures climbed above 45°C. At the end of any given year, there are, roughly between 50 to 60 national elections. Are hurricanes, cyclones, heatwaves and the like just coincidences affecting such electoral processes?

To address this question, we need data. In Managing Natural Hazards and Climate Risks in Elections, a new study from International IDEA, we set out the most comprehensive evidence to date on whether and how this is happening. In short, it is happening and is being made worse by climate change.

Drawing on more than 100 briefs from its Election Emergency and Crisis Monitor and 13 in-depth country case studies - spanning cyclones in Mozambique, earthquakes in Türkiye, extreme heat in Mexico and the Philippines, and floods in Bosnia and Australia, we find that since the start of the century at least 94 elections and referendums in 52 countries have been disrupted by one or more natural hazards. In 2024 alone - the super-cycle year, when approximately half the world's eligible voters went to the polls - at least 23 elections in 18 countries were affected by extreme weather.

All available scientific evidence shows that extreme weather grows more frequent and more intense: 2024 was confirmed as the warmest on record, with the annual average temperature exceeding 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for the first time. As we have shown with the opening examples, this is affecting elections. But in the forthcoming years, the question is no longer going to be whether a natural hazard will coincide with an election, but whether the institutions running an election, during emergencies and crisis are adequately prepared. Hence, the question, how do electoral management bodies (EMBs) get ready for climate risks?

For the full article see: Elections as Critical Infrastructure: Preparing for a Climate-Disrupted World | Electoral Members' Network

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