Uncovering the root causes of migration

Why do people leave their country of origin and seek a new life elsewhere? The answers are complex, and sweeping assumptions can obscure a deeper understanding of how and why migration occurs.

In the MIGNEX project, a consortium of researchers went to 10 common countries of origin for migrants, including Afghanistan, Guinea, Nigeria, Somalia and Türkiye. Using extensive surveys in local communities, the team gained an evidence-based understanding of the causal links between migration and economic development.

"The idea of the 'migration-development nexus' is that development shapes migration and vice versa, in multiple ways," says Jørgen Carling, research professor at the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO). "MIGNEX is quite unique in addressing the totality of this nexus," he adds.

The project's findings suggest that development processes, such as expansion of infrastructure or improvements in livelihoods, affect whether people seek to migrate or prefer to remain. Yet these links are far from straightforward, remarks Carling: "A negative view of local livelihood opportunities tends to make people wish to leave. At the same time, actually living in poverty dampens migration desires."

Conversely, migration also shapes development in origin communities, most obviously through money sent back home. MIGNEX found that this money can lead to better education for the children of migrants, but that this comes at a cost. "While the money itself can do good, it's often the corollary of the absence of a parent, which we found to have a negative impact on schooling," explains Carling.

Extensive surveys in local communities

The research involved surveys across 10 countries of origin. MIGNEX interviewed over 12 000 people in 26 communities spread across these countries, to account for the local nature of migration drivers and the vastly different experiences of communities within the same country.

"A unique aspect of MIGNEX is that we focus on local communities rather than countries," says Carling. "Much of the interaction between migration and development gets muddled if we rely on countries as the unit of analysis."

The team selected communities that represented a range of different development contexts, then interviewed a random sample of young adults within each community, asking about their livelihoods, community attachment and migration experiences. "It was important for us to innovate in ways of soliciting thoughts and feelings about migrating," Carling explains.

To succeed, the project needed in-depth, high-quality data only possible through face-to-face interviews.

"Doing so with more than 12 000 people across a range of challenging locations is an enormous logistical undertaking in the first place," notes Carling. "And then the Covid-19 pandemic broke out just as we were starting."

The uncertain drivers of migration

Nevertheless, by adapting their work, the researchers eventually collected the data almost entirely as planned.

The most important finding for Carling was that the drivers of migration are surprisingly inconsistent and context-dependent. "After leading MIGNEX, I will be sceptical of any big narrative about why people migrate," he remarks.

Most factors explored in the project encouraged migration in some contexts and discouraged it in others, a finding which came to light not least due to the project's focus on local communities rather than countries.

MIGNEX did reveal that corruption is one of the few universal drivers of migration, however. "Experiences of corruption appear to reduce people's faith in being able to succeed where they are," Carling adds.

Continued scientific publications

MIGNEX produced over 80 publications, including 10 policy briefs. "We have received enthusiastic feedback about what we've accomplished in the project, and about the value of expertise on migration dynamics," notes Carling.

The team is continuing to work on further scientific publications, to consolidate the project's impact. "Personally, I am also working on a European Research Council-funded project that builds upon MIGNEX and zooms in on better understanding people's thoughts and feelings about potentially migrating," says Carling.