Record Corn Acres in Nebraska

Two events occurred over the past week of grave importance, the most important being the opening of the Major League Baseball season. The forces of nature are in sync again with baseball in full swing. The second occurrence of import, not far behind the first, was the release of the USDA National Agriculture Statistics Service (NASS) prospective plantings report. The report projects crop plantings based on farmer surveys conducted during the first two weeks of March.

The most newsworthy aspect of the report for Nebraska is the projection that 10.6 million acres of corn will be planted in the state, up 5% from last year. If realized, it would be record-setting. The current record is 10.2 million acres set in 2020. Nebraska's projected increase in corn acres, 550,000 acres, is second only to Iowa's 600,000. Most of the increased acres will come at the expense of soybeans. Nebraska farmers said they intend to plant 5.0 million acres of soybeans, down 300,000 acres. Nationwide, NASS projects 95.3 million acres of corn will be planted, up 5%, and 83.5 million acres of soybeans, down 4%.

FIGURE 1. PLANTED ACRES TO CORN, SOYBEANS, & WHEAT IN NEBRASKA

*planting intentions

Source: Rolling Prairie Economics graphic using data from USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

Total acres to be planted in the U.S. are expected to be 310 million. John Newton, an agricultural economist with Terrain, says this would be the second-lowest acreage in the last 30 years except for 2019 when excessive rains prevented many acres from being planted. Nebraska farmers are projected to plant 19.453 million acres, down slightly from last year but well within the historical range. Besides corn, only two other crops are expected to see increased acres in Nebraska, sunflowers, up 10%, and oats, up 8%. Acres planted to dry peas are expected to see the largest percentage decrease, down 50% from last year. Dry bean acres are expected to be off 8%, and sorghum acres are expected to be down 5%. Nebraska's harvested hay crop, often under-appreciated for its size, is pegged at 2.15 million acres, down 9%.

Nebraska farmers typically have corn crops in the ground by the end of May and the soybean crop planted by early June. Until farmers finish planting, markets will use the USDA acreage projections to estimate supply. The opening pitch of planting season is about to be thrown, and farmers are ready at the plate.