Insight Guru Inc.
10/13/2026 | Press release | Distributed by Public on 10/13/2026 02:02
Fastenal Earnings Ahead: What Past Reactions Say About The Stock
Fastenal (NASDAQ:FAST) is set to report its earnings on Wednesday, October 14, 2026. The company has a market value of about $59.1 billion. Over the last twelve months it generated $8.7 billion in revenue and $1.8 billion in operating profit, with net income of $1.4 billion.
Nobody knows how the market will take the numbers. What we can measure is how Fastenal stock has reacted to its past earnings releases, which is useful context for anyone trading around the event.
See the earnings reaction history of all stocks
The Post-Earnings Record For Fastenal Stock
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns, measured from the last close before each release:
- There are 19 earnings releases in the last five years, with 10 positive and 9 negative one-day (1D) returns. Positive 1D returns were seen 53% of the time.
- Over the last three years that share rises to 64%, across 11 releases.
- The median of the 10 positive 1D returns is 3.3%, and the median of the 9 negative ones is -2.8%.
- The largest one-day reactions were 9.8% and -6.9%.
The table below shows the 1D, 5-day (5D) and 21-day (21D) returns after each release, followed by summary statistics.
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7/14/2026 | -2.8% | -4.9% | 11.9% |
| 4/13/2026 | -6.9% | -6.9% | -11.5% |
| 1/20/2026 | -2.6% | -0.02% | 5.7% |
| 10/14/2025 | 1.0% | 1.6% | -2.0% |
| 7/14/2025 | 4.2% | 6.4% | 11.1% |
| 4/11/2025 | 6.4% | 7.6% | 6.3% |
| 1/17/2025 | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.6% |
| 10/11/2024 | 9.8% | 10.9% | 19.7% |
| 7/12/2024 | 2.0% | 7.3% | 4.0% |
| 4/11/2024 | -6.5% | -8.4% | -9.0% |
| 1/18/2024 | 7.2% | 8.6% | 11.3% |
| 10/12/2023 | 7.5% | 5.0% | 6.2% |
| 7/13/2023 | -3.5% | -2.5% | -2.7% |
| 4/13/2023 | -0.4% | 2.8% | 5.1% |
| 1/19/2023 | -1.6% | 4.1% | 12.3% |
| 10/13/2022 | 2.5% | 0.9% | 14.3% |
| 7/13/2022 | -6.4% | -3.0% | 9.6% |
| 4/13/2022 | 2.2% | -1.2% | -9.0% |
| 1/19/2022 | -0.6% | -4.6% | -9.9% |
| Statistic | 1D | 5D | 21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| # Positive | 10 | 11 | 13 |
| # Negative | 9 | 8 | 6 |
| Median Positive | 3.3% | 5.0% | 9.6% |
| Median Negative | -2.8% | -3.8% | -9.0% |
| Max Positive | 9.8% | 10.9% | 19.7% |
| Max Negative | -6.9% | -8.4% | -11.5% |
Do Early Post-Earnings Moves Continue?
Another approach is to wait for the initial reaction and ask whether it tends to continue. The table below shows the correlation between the 1D return and the return over the following 5 and 21 trading days, and between the 5D return and the following 21 trading days. A value near 1 means the first move has tended to continue; near -1, to reverse; near 0, no consistent pattern. None of these correlations is strong enough to trade on: all are below 0.40 in absolute terms over five years, so the early post-earnings move has not reliably predicted what followed.
| History | 1D vs next 5D | 1D vs next 21D | 5D vs next 21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Years | -0.06 | -0.04 | 0.17 |
| 3 Years | 0.48 | 0.28 | 0.17 |
An earnings release can move one stock sharply in either direction. A diversified portfolio spreads that risk. The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio holds about 30 quality businesses, rebalanced with rules, and has a track record of outperforming a benchmark that combines the S&P 500, the S&P MidCap 400, and the Russell 2000.
Insight Guru Inc. published this content on October 13, 2026, and is solely responsible for the information contained herein. Distributed via Public Technologies (PUBT), unedited and unaltered, on October 13, 2026 at 08:02 UTC. If you believe the information included in the content is inaccurate or outdated and requires editing or removal, please contact us at [email protected]