VÖB Stock Market Forecast Iran Conflict Heightens Uncertainty – Fundamental Drivers of Stock Markets Remain in Place

VÖB Stock Market Forecast: Iran Conflict Heightens Uncertainty - Fundamental Drivers of Stock Markets Remain in Place

Frankfurt am Main, March 18, 2026

• War in the Middle East drives up oil prices and creates uncertainty in the markets
• Duration of potential disruptions to oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz remains a decisive factor
• Global economy has proven resilient so far; corporate earnings remain a key driver
• DAX expected to range between approximately 25,500 and 27,500 points over the next twelve months

VÖB equity market experts anticipate a market environment shaped by geopolitical risks in the coming months. The war in the Middle East has caused oil prices to rise significantly and brought energy markets into the spotlight. From the analysts' perspective, the key factors determining the future development of the stock markets are, above all, how long potential disruptions to oil supplies-particularly through the Strait of Hormuz-will last and whether critical infrastructure will be affected.

The capital markets currently view this as a temporary disruption. Following the recent correction and a period of heightened volatility, the situation could stabilize again. VÖB stock market experts Joachim Schallmayer (DekaBank), Birgit Henseler (DZ BANK), Markus Reinwand (Helaba), Wolfgang Donie (NORD/LB), and Uwe Streich (LBBW) expect the DAX to range between approximately 25,500 and 27,500 points over the next twelve months.

Economic conditions and earnings are supporting the markets

Despite geopolitical tensions, the global economy has so far proven resilient. Global growth of over three percent is expected for the current year. Economic development remains robust in the U.S., while signs of stabilization are also emerging in Europe. Fiscal policy measures-such as investments in infrastructure, security, and defense-are supporting economic development.

Corporate earnings remain a key driver for the stock markets. Earnings growth of around 12 percent is expected for the S&P 500 in 2026, while solid growth is also forecast for the DAX and the Euro Stoxx 50.

In addition to geopolitical developments, structural trends such as the investment cycle surrounding artificial intelligence are shaping the market environment. Heavy investment in technology infrastructure, data centers, and semiconductors can also support other sectors such as energy, construction, and network infrastructure. Overall, stock markets are thus navigating a complex landscape of geopolitical risks, positive economic prospects, and structural investment trends.

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