Is the Ukraine Recovery Conference Building Momentum or Falling Short

Commentary by Sergiy Tsivkach

Published July 18, 2025

The recent Ukraine Recovery Conference (URC), held in Rome on July 10-11, marked the fourth and largest such annual gathering of politicians, financiers, businesses, and experts from over 70 countries united in their commitment to support Ukraine's recovery and future.

More than 6,000 delegates attended the conference, which was officially opened by Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Delegates received the latest updates on Ukraine's recovery plans, engaged in business networking, signed agreements, and learned about international opportunities to support Ukraine's continued resistance to Russia's full-scale military invasion.

Over 200 agreements were signed this year, most of which represent pledges of support or launches of new cooperation efforts. Approximately €13 billion has been committed across key sectors in Ukraine.

Once again, high-level participants from governments and the private sector reassured Ukraine of sustained assistance for reconstruction. Notably, this year's URC had the strongest business participation to date, creating a truly dynamic atmosphere. Substantial private investment projects were presented and entered early development stages. Private sector momentum has built on the foundation laid in London in 2023 and reinforced in Berlin in 2024, now taking a clearer shape in Rome in 2025.

Nevertheless, a broader view is needed to determine whether successive URC meetings are securing Ukraine's sustainable growth or simply functioning as public support campaigns with limited long-term impact on Ukraine's prosperity.

From Pledges to Progress: The Evolution of the URC

Since the first Ukraine Recovery Conference in Lugano in 2022-an evolution from the former Ukraine Reform Conference-the URC has become a major international platform for the coordination of Ukraine's recovery. At each event, international partners have announced significant financial commitments.

Based on available data, the URCs in Lugano, London, Berlin, and Rome have secured an estimated $200 billion in pledged commitments to support Ukraine, its economy, and its businesses through grants, loans, guarantees, and programs. In many cases, these multiyear programs have yet to be implemented by international partners and Ukraine.

Hundreds of memoranda and agreements have been signed at these four conferences at the government-to-government (G2G), government-to-business (G2B), and business-to-business (B2B) levels. These have been concluded for various but critical purposes such as budgetary support, energy system reconstruction, investment and trade, insurance, municipal support, and humanitarian aid.

Every URC event has had its own character and effect, but the overarching goal of Ukraine's recovery has persisted across all conferences, and the number of delegates has consistently grown year by year-from just over 1,000 in Lugano in 2022 to more than 6,000 in Rome in 2025.

The beneficiaries of URC meetings include Ukraine's national government, international financial institutions (IFIs), municipal and regional governments of Ukraine, international businesses, investors, and, ultimately, Ukrainian citizens.

Due to fragmented reporting, it is difficult to provide accurate figures for total commitments announced at URC meetings and their disbursement rates. Instead, estimates and impacts can be assessed through a high-level summary:

• Ukrainian government agencies have secured major pledges through financial aid, grants, and concessional loans, primarily through bilateral support and the European Union's Ukraine Facility. Over 15 major agreements lay the foundation for this support, much of which is designed to benefit businesses and citizens.
• IFIs, including the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), the European Investment Bank (EIB), the World Bank, and the International Financial Corporation (IFC), have operated as crucial intermediaries to disburse loans, guarantees, and technical assistance for more than 30 signed agreements.
• Ukrainian municipalities and regions received support through more than 30 projects at URC meetings, including 20 projects in Rome. This is a positive sign that reflects the growing importance of decentralized cooperation between donors, investors, businesses, and local governments.
• The national defense and security sectors have benefited through at least five publicly disclosed deals, with a total value exceeding $5 billion.
• Ukrainian citizens have benefited from programs that support education, internally displaced persons, veterans, housing compensation, healthcare, and other needs via more than 15 agreements.
• Ukraine's private sector is expected to benefit from leveraged support through investment vehicles, loans, guarantees, and other programs, as well as facilitated B2B cooperation. More than 400 business-related agreements have been signed at the URCs. However, their ultimate impact remains to be seen, and further tracking is essential.

Is Private Sector Development the Missing Link?

A shift toward supporting the private sector at URC meetings is vital. The London conference was the first to highlight this, with notable developments at the following year's conference in Berlin. The Rome conference was more business focused than ever before, marking an important step in private sector mobilization in Ukraine's recovery agenda.

All stakeholders understand that rebuilding Ukraine, at an estimated cost of over $500 billion, cannot succeed without the engagement of the private sector at scale. While the public sector is crucial for rapid recovery, private sector activity yields long-term effects and should therefore be urgently prioritized. Current dynamics, however, signal this objective has yet to be realized.

Out of the hundreds of G2B and B2B agreements and memoranda signed, relatively few have materialized. Many of those documents are signed at preliminary stages of business projects and are limited by a lack of access to affordable finance and de-risking mechanisms or regulatory clarity. Hence, the future of such initiatives remains vague. This is not merely a financial gap, but a sign of a structural problem for which Ukraine shares responsibility.

Ukraine's ability to conduct governance and economic reforms in extreme conditions remains a significant limiting factor. The judicial system, tax and customs authorities, and enforcement agencies responsible for fighting corruption and economic crime have all been identified as critical priority reform areas for many years. Without substantial progress in these sectors, reconstruction may stall, defending the country may become more difficult, and international support may weaken.

Private capital is available to address financial and structural issues, but it requires effective and transparent regulation, fair business practices, and a level playing field across all sectors of Ukraine's economy. International support is also crucial to the provision of de-risking, guarantees, and blended finance.

Nevertheless, the Rome conference has yielded some significant results:

• A €600 million EU program, to be delivered through the EIB, supporting energy, transport, and business resilience, including small and medium-sized enterprises
• The European Flagship Fund for the Reconstruction of Ukraine, announced by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, which pledged an initial €200 million, with a target of €500 million by 2026
• An IFC and EBRD initiative to develop investment platforms, with the aim to raise around €600 million from private equity and venture capital for critical sectors such as infrastructure
• The U.S. Development Finance Corporation's continued engagement in Ukraine's reconstruction through its United States-Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund and its search for a suitable fund administrator

It seems that institutional investors remain interested in Ukraine, a reassuring signal of confidence to private players.

Turning Promises into Action

Critics of the URC conferences argue that now is not the time for such gatherings, arguing that all focus should remain on defending Ukraine, with broader reconstruction plans put aside until hostilities end. As difficult as it is, they may have a point, but only if URC meetings turn into a window-dressing event rather than a genuine and coordinated effort to rebuild Ukraine. For now, the long-term impact of the URCs remains uncertain.

By most accounts, the four URC convenings have been a great success, building momentum for Ukraine's current recovery and future reconstruction, seeking out more tangible results, and attracting growing international attention year after year. Significant progress has been made: Recovery principles were set in Lugano in 2022; early traction and massive pledges in London in 2023 were reinforced in Berlin in 2024; and deal execution began in Rome in 2025-with a stronger private sector focus than ever before. The Ukrainian government and international partners now must direct their attention to closing some gaps: tracking progress, implementing projects, and scaling successful initiatives.

Charting the Path Forward for Ukraine's Economic Transformation

During the last three years, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal's administration succeeded in stabilizing the country's economy in the face of extremely challenging conditions involving a war and a pandemic. The newly appointed government of Ukraine, led by Yulia Svyrydenko, has all the tools for success. As former first deputy prime minister and minister of economic development and trade, she and her team possess deep knowledge of Ukraine's economy and its needs. Svyrydenko, serving as the key URC co-organizer for Ukraine, can solidify the success of the URC platform and ensure its long-lasting impact.

The next 12 months will be extremely important for Ukraine's future, as they require the advancement of strategic initiatives, such as the United States-Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund, European Flagship Fund for the Reconstruction of Ukraine, and other programs, including private sector activity. The upcoming URC in Warsaw in 2026-the fifth in the series-is likely to become a turning point and will possibly be the first held in a postwar setting. It carries the potential to mark a historic shift: from foundations and promises to practical delivery and the impactful rebuilding of Ukraine.

Ukraine has the opportunity to become the next ground zero for capital flows-or it could become a money pit. The country's future will depend on coordinated action within Ukraine and reinforcement of investor confidence. Ineffectiveness or unfair practices could deter investors more than the war itself. The URC conferences and Ukraine's recovery are on the right track, but their success is not guaranteed. Persistent challenges must be addressed to achieve a lasting and meaningful impact.

Sergiy Tsivkach is an adjunct fellow (non-resident) with the Project on Prosperity and Development at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C.

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