Sticker shock in the candy aisle: Ohio State expert unwraps the reason behind Halloween chocolate price increase

COLUMBUS, Ohio - As consumers stock up on Halloween candy this fall, they may notice a little less chocolate in their trick-or-treat bags - and a little more strain on their wallets.

A complex global story of crop failures, climate change, international tariffs and price volatility lies behind this year's Halloween treats - driving up costs and reshaping the economics of America's favorite holiday indulgence.

In a recent market analysis, Trick-or-Treat Trends: U.S. Chocolate Market Panorama for Halloween 2025,Alexis Villacis, an assistant professor of agricultural economics in The Ohio State University College of Food, Agricultural, and Environmental Sciences (CFAES), outlines the pressures facing chocolate manufacturers this season and the broader global dynamics behind them.

Villacis says 2025 is shaping up to be one of the most expensive Halloween seasons in years for chocolate manufacturers and consumers alike.

"The single biggest driver of cocoa prices this Halloween is a multiyear supply shortfall in West Africa, especially in Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana, which together produce nearly two-thirds of the world's cocoa," said Villacis, who conducts research in the CFAES Department of Agricultural, Environmental, and Development Economics.

Extreme weather, plant diseases and aging trees have all contributed to poor harvests and created the largest cocoa supply deficit in decades. The result: Futures prices for cocoa skyrocketed to historic highs in 2024 and remain elevated this year, pushing up costs for U.S. chocolate manufacturers.

Butthe challenges don't stop there.

"Risk management tools have also become more expensive," Villacis said. "Because of volatility, markets raised margin requirements, meaning companies must now tie up more cash just to hedge against price swings."

Traditionally, chocolate companies have relied on futures contracts to lock in prices in advance - a strategy known as hedging. But with increased costs and financial barriers, some firms are shifting to shorter-term or off-exchange contracts, leaving them more vulnerable to rapid price fluctuations.

Adding further pressure, the United States introduced new reciprocal tariffs on cocoa imports in April 2025, with rates as high as 21% on imports from Côte d'Ivoire, Villacis said.

"These tariffs can't be hedged away. They simply raise costs," he said. "The practical result is familiar to shoppers: higher prices and smaller packs."

Still, chocolate continues to dominate the Halloween candy market.

According to the National Confectioners Association, 80% of Halloween candy shoppers are choosing chocolate in 2025. And consumers aren't skimping on the holiday: Halloween candy spending is projected to reach $3.9 billion in 2025, up from $3.5 billion last year, according to the National Retail Federation.

The National Retail Federation also estimates that nearly 600 million pounds of treats will be sold for the holiday, with the average household spending about $30 on candy and purchasing roughly 7.4 pounds. Chocolate remains the top choice, including among children, with 47% specifically preferring it, according to the consumer agency.

"Halloween candy isn't just another grocery item. It's part of a cultural ritual," Villacis said. "Parents feel an obligation to provide it, and kids expect it in their trick-or-treat buckets."

That cultural loyalty helps explain why overall U.S. chocolate sales are expected to surpass $30 billion in 2025, despite inflation and "shrinkflation," where package sizes decrease even as prices stay the same or rise.

"Consumers may trade down within chocolate, but they rarely substitute away from it during the holidays," Villacis said.

But the long-term sustainability of the global cocoa supply remains uncertain. Many farms in key producing regions operate with limited resources, aging trees and low farmer incomes. Climate change continues to introduce further unpredictability.

"If these issues aren't addressed, cocoa will remain prone to the kinds of shortages and price spikes we've seen recently," Villacis said.

Still, there are promising developments, he said.

Countries such as Ecuador and Indonesia are expanding production, and even the United States - through limited cultivation in Puerto Rico and Hawaii - is contributing small-scale, specialty-market cocoa. Villacis notes these efforts offer opportunities for research in climate adaptation and supply diversification.

"Chocolate is likely to remain a centerpiece of Halloween," he said. "But unless sustainability challenges are tackled, higher prices and smaller packs may become the norm."

Villacis also encourages consumers to see chocolate not just as a sweet treat, but as a symbol of global interconnection.

His work focuses on the sustainability of food value chains, with a particular emphasis on production and food security challenges in cacao and coffee systems. Ohio State University Extension, CFAES' outreach arm, supports public awareness on global, agricultural economics and food system trends through applied research and community engagement.

"A bar of candy on Halloween night connects kids in Ohio to farmers in Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana or Ecuador," he said. "The same forces shaping Halloween candy prices - unpredictable weather, concentrated supply and trade policy - are impacting many of the foods we eat every day."