OpenAI is Fading

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Good Morning,

The Texas Stock Exchange saw its first primary listings, the ex-wife of Two Sigma's co-founder was barred from testifying in their $6B divorce, Korean 'ants' are bringing their degen trading to US stocks, and OpenAI is being left in the dust as its revenue growth slowed to six-times lower than Anthropic.

CME just launched single-stock futures on some of the biggest names and NinjaTrader is allowing you trade them risk-free on their NinjaTrader SIM platform. Worth a peek if you're into derivatives.

Let's dive in.

Before The Bell

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Markets

• US stocks slid yesterday as rising oil prices and bond yields continued to weigh

  • S&P 500 fell for a third day

• US 10Y yield climbed to the highest since early 2025

• Germany sold 30Y bonds at a 3.783% yield, the highest since 2011

• China 10Y yield fell to 1.67% to its lowest in one year

• Oil rose for a fourth day

  • Average US diesel prices hit $5.47/gal nearing its ATH of $5.82

Earnings

• Klarna beat Q2 earnings and revenue estimates but cut its outlook on persistent consumer spending weakness, particularly in Germany; the firm is overhauling leadership as it targets a US banking license (WSJ)

• The Home Depot beat Q2 earnings and revenue estimates and reaffirmed its FY guidance amid 'frozen housing market conditions' (CNBC)

• What we're watching this week:

  • Today: Target, TJX

  • Thursday: Walmart, Alibaba

• Full calendar here

Prediction Markets

• Bond markets are pricing in rate hikes but recent economic data is making it all look like a toss up

• Deposit $10 and get a $20 bonus with code LIT on signup, only on the Polymarket US app

Headline Roundup

• US paused Canada tariffs for three days subject to a deal (BBG)

• UAE suspended trade with Iran (FT)

• Global bond selloff sees no end in sight (WSJ)

• Bond markets put governments on notice over fiscal, inflation risks (RT)

• Bond traders are now hedging for rate cuts in 2027 (BBG)

• PE megafunds have made zero deals in China this year (FT)

• Korean traders are now buying ADRs of Korean stocks in US (CNBC)

• Texas Stock Exchange lured two ETFs in first primary listings (BBG)

• Port of LA had its second-busiest July ever (BBG)

• OpenAI revenue grew only 18% in Q2 while Anthropic doubled (WSJ)

• Anthropic is preparing supervoting power for founders ahead of IPO (RT)

• OpenAI unveiled ChatGPT for Teens (RT)

• Pennsylvania became latest state to regulate data center construction (WSJ)

• Congress threatened Apollo co-founder Leon Black with contempt (BBG)

• Penn State frat brothers busted for running cocaine trafficking ring (BBG)

• Ex-wife of Two Sigma's co-founder was barred from testifying in their $6B divorce case after hacking his email (NYP)

• Micro-dramas boom in Hollywood as studios chase TikTok audience (RT)

• AC becomes 'must-have' for overheated London office workers (FT)

A Message from NinjaTrader

Ninja Trader is offering CME single stock futures on Nvidia, Tesla, Apple, Amazon, and more

NinjaTrader is live with CME Group Single Stock Futures, giving eligible traders futures contracts on individual US names. Initial phased rollout covers 15 names at launch, with 55 total rolling out.

Names live at launch include: $NVDA $TSLA $AAPL $AMZN $GOOG $META $MSFT $SPCX. Futures tickers just add an S in front (e.g. SNVDA) and micro-sized contracts add an X (e.g. XNVDA), with launch set for this week.

Try them risk-free on the NinjaTrader SIM platform.

Security futures are not suitable for everyone. Leverage amplifies gains and losses. ninjatrader.com/ssf-risk

Deal Flow

M&A / Strategic

• KKR offered to takeover natural gas and electricity distributor UGI Corp for $9B at a 20% premium

• Second-hand car retailer Copart is competing with PE firms GTCR and Veritas Capital to acquire $4.2B-listed car insurance software provider CCC Intelligent Solutions

• French PE firm Ardian is weighing a multi-billion dollar sale of electronic industrial's firm Swissbit

• Canada's McEwen Copper is in talks with mining giant Rio Tinto and other investors for $4B in funding, including $1.2B in equity, to build a mine in Argentina

• TPG Global made an unsolicited $467M bid for Australian investment manager EQT Holdings

• Denmark-based Leo Pharma agreed to buy rights to a rare genetic skin disease drug from Japan's Tanabe Pharma in a $435M deal ahead of an IPO

• Goldman Sachs will buy CRE investor LCN Capital Partners in a $410M deal

• Inspire Brands Asia is considering a sale of gym operator Anytime Fitness Asia at a $400M valuation, including debt

• Amancio Ortega's family office Pontegadea Inversiones paid $203M for a residential rental building at 219 Baker St. in Marylebone, London

• Drone firm Ondas will acquire Aran Defense for $33M

• Market maker Optiver will buy Dutch energy trader Northpool

• State oil giant Saudi Aramco and Saudi mining ​company Maaden will form ‌a mineral exploration JV in Saudi Arabia

VC

• AI chip startup Etched raised a $700M Series D at a $21B valuation led by Jane Street

• EliseAI, a property management automation platform, is in talks to raise $300M a funding round at a $3.7B valuation led by a16z and Bessemer

• Velaura AI, a semiconductor company commercializing ultra-low-power computing for AI, raised a $110M Series A at a $1B valuation led by Seligman Ventures

• Smack Technologies, a national security AI lab, raised a $61M Series B led by Costanoa Ventures and First In

• NeoGeo, an Indian geospatial technology startup, raised a $20M Series A led by Neev II Fund and Aavishkaar Capital

• Synthefy, a structured data foundation-model company, raised a $6.5M seed round led by Wing Venture Capital

Access the complete VC deal flow and data on Fundable

IPOs / Listings / Issuances / Block Trades

• National Stock Exchange of India is seeking a $55B valuation in a record India IPO

• Warburg Pincus-backed UK AI data company Quantexa is considering a multibillion-dollar US or UK IPO

• UK retailer Frasers Group raised its stake in $3B-listed Hugo Boss to 48%

• Investors committed $400M to a planned $2B IPO of Africa's Dangote Petroleum Refinery & Petrochemicals

• Zambia's stock exchange expects to bring a record $1B of IPOs after this month's election

• Alibaba-backed Chinese AI video platform ShengShu Technology is considering a $500M Hong Kong IPO

• Resilient Asset Management, the family office of Paytm founder Vijay Shekhar, sold a 3% stake in Indian fintech Paytm for $310M with proceeds to flow to Ant Group

• Alibaba-backed Chinese robot maker LimX is planning a $300M Hong Kong IPO

• Investment firm Mavik built a 5.4% stake in KKR Real Estate Finance Trust, which invests in commercial mortgages, as it explores a sale

SPAC / SPV

• Mark Cuban-backed physical AI firm Fort Robotics will merge with Newbury Street II Acquisition Corp. at a $557M enterprise valuation

Debt

• Dulles International Airport, which serves DC, is planning a $14B munis sale

• Anthropic's revolving credit facility is set to rise above its $10B target ahead of an IPO

• Guggenheim CEO Mark Walter held talks with Apollo about a multibillion-dollar loan against his now-sold Lakers stake

• India's ICICI Bank accepted bids worth $750M for a new dollar bond to take its total dollar bond raise to $2.05B this month

• Boeing and Lockheed Martin's rocket JV United Launch Alliance raise $1.5B in a private placement of bonds

• Flexential, a provider of secure and flexible data center solutions, secured an $800M credit facility from eleven banks and supported by equity sponsors GI Partners and MSIP

• Hedge fund TCI has invested $636M in loans to ultra-luxury hotels in Italy

• Starwood Property Trust and real assets investors Realterm provided a $672M loan for a portfolio of Stonemont Financial and Cerberus-backed industrial outdoor storage lots

• The prime brokerage arm of crypto firm Ripple raised $275M in private placement of bonds

Bankruptcy / Restructuring / Distressed

• ‌Braskem Idesa, the Mexican petrochemical JV of Brazil's Braskem and Mexico's Grupo Idesa, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in US after reaching ​agreements with stakeholders to cut debt by ~$1B

• Google will acquire Spirit Airlines' business data for $10M

• Creditors swapped debt for equity in real estate advisory firm Avison Young (Canada)

Funds / Secondaries

• Credit investor Balbec raised $1.5B for its fifth credit fund

• PE FOF HarbourVest Partners acquired $1B of PE LP stakes from University of California

• Lower MM Texas PE firm Broadwing Capital raised $440M for its debut fund

• Investment firm Ninety One raised $404M for its third Africa Credit Opportunities fund

• CVC filed for a private secondaries fund to target mid to late-stage tech startups through primary and secondary investments

Crypto Sum Snapshot

• Visa is seeking new a stablecoin partner to expand settlements globally

• White House agencies will set crypto policy as Clarity Act stalled

• SEC proposed exempting certain crypto offerings from securities registration statements

Crypto Sum compiles the most important stories on everything crypto. Read it here.

Exec's Picks

• Recovery waterfalls, LME structures, Chapter 11 mechanics: 8 weeks online with Wharton faculty and real-world practitioners. Restructuring & Distressed Investing Certificate from Wharton Online. Starts Oct. 5. Save $300 with code LITQUIDITY on enrollment.

• Bloomberg published an interesting deep dive on the booming tax maneuver for ultra-rich people that's spooking even Schwab and Fidelity.

Financial Services Recruiting

If you're a junior banker looking for your next career move, check out Litney Partners, a recruiting firm established by Litquidity and Whitney Partners (the oldest purely financial services executive search and consulting firm).

We aim to place strong candidates across private equity, hedge funds, venture capital, growth equity, credit, and investment banking.

We're currently seeking talent for some incredible roles. Head over to Litney Partners to drop your resume / create your profile and we'd love to get in touch!

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*DISCLAIMER: Investment advice provided by Autopilot Advisers, LLC ("Autopilot"), an SEC-registered investment adviser. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing carries risks, including loss of principal. As always, be smart out there. Litquidity is compensated to promote AutoPilot. Compensation details available upon request.