Should we expect post-election violence

Brandeis Stories

Should we expect post-election violence?

In the run-up to the presidential election, Brandeis Stories asked university faculty to provide expert analysis and insight into how the candidates might address pressing issues facing the country.

By Jytte Klausen
October 10, 2024

A repeat of the January 6, 2021, assault on Congress is in my view unlikely. Trump is not in the White House and Kamala Harris, not Mike Pence, is the Vice President. Charging the Capitol building to prevent a peaceful transfer of power is pointless this time. In any case, the leaders of the groups that conspired to lead the mob in 2021 are not available to orchestrate another raid. They are in prison. Close to 1,300 January 6 rioters have been charged and prosecuted or are awaiting trial. Many did plea bargains that also will keep them at home.

Election violence is almost guaranteed but it will be localized. We know this script. Self-deployed heavily armed militants will turn up at election sites and intimidate voters and election officials under the guise of "protecting" the election. Safeguarding the election against small-town vigilantes will be challenging. The Trump campaign, already anticipating a loss, is mobilizing a "Stop the Steal" campaign and preparing slates of fake electors who will reject certification should Harris win. Election officials and volunteers are already bombarded with death threats. The difference between a real threat and a 'ha-ha' threat is irrelevant when you are on the receiving end. They are all real.

Trump has accused Harris and the Democrats of inciting violence against him when they say he is a threat to democracy. The charge is disingenuous. The perpetrators of the two recent assassination attempts on Trump had donated small sums to both parties, and one of them had voted for Trump in 2016. Would-be assassins are more likely to be motivated by martyrdom fantasies or desires for fame than partisan political motives.

"The difference between a real threat and a 'ha-ha' threat is irrelevant when you are on the receiving end. They are all real."

Presidential assassinations are a bipartisan risk. Obama was the target of three times as many threats as his predecessors. In 2023, a man drove a van fully loaded with weapons to the Obamas' home and prepared to live-stream an attack after Trump revealed the Obamas' address on his Truth Social account. In July, a 37-year-old man was arrested and charged with making plans to kill, assassinate, shoot, and crash the plane of President Biden; assassinate Vice President Harris; and assassinate former President Obama. He might have been able to do one of the things on his bucket list had he not been arrested. Then in August, a Virginia man was arrested and charged with making credible deadly threats against Harris. Those are just the cases we know about.

My imagination does not stretch to outline what may happen should one of the presidential candidates be killed.

Jytte Klausen is the Lawrence A. Wien Professor of International Cooperation at Brandeis University.