Becerra, Hilton Lead Governor’s Race; Majority Back Billionaire Wealth Tax

SAN FRANCISCO, May 27, 2026-Democrat Xavier Becerra and Republican Steve Hilton sit atop a crowded field of gubernatorial candidates heading into next week's primary election. Most likely voters support an initiative that imposes a one-time tax on billionaire's assets. Inflation, cost of living, and housing prices remain top of mind for voters. A record share of Californians are pessimistic about the direction of the country. These are among the key findings from a statewide survey released today by the Public Policy Institute of California.

Becerra (23%) and Hilton (20%) have surged to the top of the governor's race, followed by Democrat Tom Steyer (15%), Republican Chad Bianco (13%), and Democrat Katie Porter (12%). No other candidates are polling in double digits. Becerra leads all candidates in support among 18- to 34-year-olds, Latinos, women, and self-identified liberals. Hilton leads in support among whites, Central Valley residents, and self-identified conservatives.

"Over the past two months, both Becerra and Hilton have consolidated support within their own respective parties," said Mark Baldassare, PPIC Statewide Survey director and Miller Chair in Public Policy. "Hilton has benefitted from President Trump's endorsement, while Becerra appears to have drawn in many of Democrat Eric Swalwell's voters after he suspended his campaign."

Whichever two candidates make it through to November, they'll be facing an electorate increasingly frustrated with the state's high cost of living. Fifty-four percent of Californians say that recent price increases have caused them financial hardship, while two in three say the recent run-up in gas prices has impacted their budgets.

The new statewide survey also finds:

• Majority supports billionaire wealth tax, with divides by age, homeownership. Fifty-four percent of likely voters say they would support an initiative likely headed for the November ballot that imposes a one-time tax of up to 5 percent on taxpayers with assets valued over $1 billion. The highly publicized initiative is most popular among Democrats (76%), 18- to 34-year-olds (75%), and renters (71%). California Republicans overwhelmingly oppose the measure (82%), while older voters, independents, and homeowners are split on the proposal.

  Likely voters appear split on another likely November ballot measure that would establish new voter ID requirements (49% yes, 51% no). A recently proposed initiative to eliminate California's top-two primary system may face an uphill climb; six in ten likely voters say the top-two primary has been mostly a good thing for California.

• Record high share of Californians say US headed in the wrong direction. Eighty percent of California adults think the nation is headed in the wrong direction, the largest share on record since PPIC began asking this question in 2003. Nine in ten Democrats, eight in ten independents, and half of Republicans are pessimistic about the country's future. The percentage of Republicans who believe the country is headed in the right direction has slipped significantly since February.

  "It's remarkable that even with a relatively healthy economy, Californians have been feeling gloomier and gloomier about the US for a few years now," said Baldassare.

  Economic pessimism and unhappiness with the war in Iran are likely fueling Californians' discontent. A record high 78 percent of adults expect bad financial times over the next year, and three in four likely voters disapprove of US military action against Iran.

• Support for Newsom's budget, but worries over long-term deficits. After reading a brief summary of Governor Gavin Newsom's revised budget proposal from May, a majority (54%) approve of the plan, including over half of independents (54%). However, with the state facing projected budget deficits in future years, 89 percent of Californians say the balance between government spending and revenues is a problem.

  Californians appear conflicted on how to deal with future budget deficits. Forty percent support reducing future deficits mostly through spending cuts, while 46 percent prefer to reduce deficits mostly through a mix of spending cuts and raising taxes.

About the Survey

The Californians and Their Government survey is supported with funding from the Arjay R. and Frances F. Miller Foundation.

The findings are based on responses from 1,707 California adult residents. The sampling error is ±3.2 percent at the 95 percent confidence level for the total unweighted sample and ±4.1 percent for the 986 likely voters. The survey was conducted from May 14-18, 2026. For more information, please see the methodology section in the full survey report.

Mark Baldassare is statewide survey director at PPIC, where he holds the Arjay and Frances Fearing Miller Chair in Public Policy. He is founder of the PPIC Statewide Survey, which he has directed since 1998.

The Public Policy Institute of California is dedicated to informing and improving public policy in California through independent, objective, nonpartisan research. We are a public charity. We do not take or support positions on any ballot measure or on any local, state, or federal legislation, nor do we endorse, support, or oppose any political parties or candidates for public office. Research publications reflect the views of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of our funders or of the staff, officers, advisory councils, or board of directors of the Public Policy Institute of California.