After devastating fire, USF oceanographers race to keep hurricane forecasts on track

Dyllan Furness, College of Marine Science

On a warm spring morning, a team of oceanographers from the USF College of Marine Science cruised into the Gulf to service buoys equipped with sophisticated ocean sensors. The clock was ticking. Hurricane season was just around the corner, and the data recorded by these sensors are used to help forecast storm surge, rapid intensification, and other key hazards associated with tropical storms.

The trip would have been routine if not for one recent event: A fire that engulfed the college's primary facility, the 80,000-square-foot Marine Science Laboratory, just over a week prior. More than 125 people were displaced, research activities faced significant disruption, and the Ocean Circulation Lab, which maintains USF's buoy program, lost its workspace.

"The fire was devastating," said Jay Law, a research scientist in the lab who has led more than 100 research cruises. "I stood on the seawall that evening with colleagues and strangers and watched the flames take our professional home in a matter of hours. Of course, we feel gutted, but the most important thing is that no one was hurt. And we were fortunate in that we recovered some key equipment that allowed us to get back to what we do, back on the water to keep our observing network up and our research going."

Law and his team quickly secured a boat, assembled diving equipment, and compiled a crew of six, including two graduate students and an undergraduate intern to document the trip with his camera. Shortly after sunrise, they departed Bayboro Harbor aboard the R/V Tocobaga.

Scientific modeling

For decades, researchers in the Ocean Circulation Lab have gathered data from the Gulf, which they use to inform detailed, scientific models that forecast the movement of water along Florida's west coast and in Tampa Bay.

These models have been used to predict which areas will encounter red tide and plumes of marine pollution, such as wastewater discharge from the Piney Point phosphate plant. They have aided forensic investigators searching for bodies in the bay. And on multiple occasions over the last few years, the models have been put to the test during hurricane season.

In September 2022, as Category 5 Hurricane Ian approached Florida's west coast, the lab's director, Yonggang Liu, monitored the models from his home in St. Petersburg. Days before landfall, the models accurately predicted that Ian would push water out of Tampa Bay, while Lee and Collier counties farther south would see significant storm surge. Data gathered from buoys and tide gauges later validated these forecasts.

A year later, as Category 4 Hurricane Idalia brewed in the Gulf, the models again accurately predicted storm surge of about 1.5 meters in Tampa Bay and about 2 meters at Cedar Key.

"Hurricane season has always been a busy time for our team," says Liu, an associate professor of physical oceanography in the College of Marine Science. "It's also been a chance for our lab to demonstrate the value and accuracy of our models, and to refine our forecast capabilities moving forward."

The lab shares data from its models and field instruments with the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration, helping municipalities and emergency agencies prepare and communicate risks to the public.

"Coastal oceans are the last few miles before tropical cyclones make landfall and cause substantial damage through extreme winds, storm surges, and compound flooding," said Matt Anderson, science and operations officer of the NOAA National Weather Service in Tampa Bay. "It is critical to know whether a hurricane will further intensify or not in this region, as it leaves less time for preparation."

The work of the Ocean Circulation Lab continues to expand. A partnership with the Florida Flood Hub for Applied Research and Innovation is improving model resolution for intracoastal waterways and small estuaries along Florida's west coast, while researchers are developing a new model covering the state's east coast.

"These efforts have allowed us to not only provide broader coverage of Florida's coastline, but also to cover the state in finer detail," Liu said.

Buoy service

About two hours into the trip, after traveling 50 miles offshore, the Tocobaga pulled alongside a yellow buoy off the coast of Siesta Key. Crew members climbed aboard and serviced a suite of meteorological and oceanographic sensors used to measure winds, currents, water temperature, and other important parameters. The instruments are regularly retrieved, with their real-world data feeding directly into the lab's predictive models.

At another site about an hour away, crew members donned wetsuits, masks, fins, and SCUBA gear before back-rolling into the Gulf. They dove 60 feet to a device mounted to the seafloor.

Data gathered from sensors beneath the sea surface, not detectable by satellites, have proven to be valuable for hurricane forecasters. In 2025, Liu, Law, and others found that Hurricane Ian's rapid intensification was likely fueled by unusually warm subsurface water in the shallow coastal part of the Gulf.

"When subsurface water temperatures are included in models, they help provide a full picture of the water column and the potential energy available for hurricanes," Liu said. "These subsurface features are not detectable by satellites. Real-time monitoring via surface buoys is essential in providing this information to both the hurricane forecast community and the general public."

The Tocobaga returned to the College of Marine Science that evening about an hour before sunset. The crew unloaded equipment onto golf carts and transported it to the Maritime and Defense Technology Hub, which has provided storage and operational space following the fire.

By the end of the month, the researchers were back at sea - this time aboard the Florida Institute of Oceanography's R/V Weatherbird II for a four-day cruise deploying and recovering additional buoys across the Gulf.

"It's been incredible to witness the resilience of our researchers," said Tom Frazer, dean of the College of Marine Science. "Our people continue to overcome immense challenges because of the fire. The efforts of the Ocean Circulation Lab in particular will help ensure the security of our coastal communities as we enter hurricane season."